JPMorgan: Tech Bond Issuance Impact Manageable; September Equity Buying Slowdown May Present Entry Window
nashnova research
JPMorgan's latest fund-flow report says $260 billion in incremental tech bond issuance lifts yields by only 5–15 basis points, while September's equity-fund inflow drop to near zero looks more like a pause than a retreat — its model still puts S&P 500 six-month upside probability above 75%.
Tech companies are flooding the bond market — can it absorb the supply?
Net tech-bond issuance in the US and Europe is set to rise roughly $260 billion in 2026 versus 2025 — US tech investment-grade plus high-yield jumps from ~$140 billion to ~$335 billion; Europe's annualized pace tops €90 billion.
This means → against a global bond net-issuance pool of roughly $4.9 trillion, the tech increment is about 5.3% — large in isolation, a rounding error in the full picture.
JPMorgan's supply-demand model estimates the yield impact at roughly 10–15 basis points on the global aggregate index; factoring in OIS (overnight index swap — a gauge of market rate expectations) moves, the effect shrinks to 5–10 bps.
In plain terms = tech issuance does add pressure, but it is "moderate, absorbable" marginal supply — not a regime-changing shock.
September equity flows went cold — retreat or just a breather?
Four-week average through September 9: global equity funds took in $7.2 billion net, while US equity funds saw a $2.6 billion net outflow; non-US equity funds pulled in $9.7 billion. After five straight months of strong inflows, September's global equity-fund flows dropped to near zero.
JPMorgan draws a parallel to April 2024: rate expectations and bond yields rose then too, yet money came roaring back by May.
Retail signals are also soft — net buying of small-lot single-stock calls and the relative performance of retail-favorite stock baskets versus the S&P 500 both sit at low levels. This reflects a short-term sentiment dip, but JPMorgan leans toward the view it won't last long.
How crowded are positions — and what does the model say?
As of September 15, aggregate equity positioning sits at the 75th historical percentile; government bonds at the 55th; credit at just the 21st.
In plain terms = equity positioning is elevated but not extreme; credit is very light — if money rotates back in, credit has the most room to snap higher.
JPMorgan's logistic-regression model — blending trading activity, valuation, positioning, flows, economic momentum, and price momentum — still reads above the 75% probability threshold, meaning S&P 500 six-month upside odds remain elevated.
Where is the money actually flowing?
ETF data reveals a counterintuitive pattern: over the past 12 months, US materials, industrials, and energy ETFs have attracted stronger inflows than tech.
This means → capital is hunting for "overlooked real-economy" plays beyond the AI narrative; sector rotation is already underway.
Regionally, South Korea and Taiwan ETFs saw solid inflows but remain underweight by ~0.6 and 0.5 percentage points versus global index weights; Japan is underweight ~1.2 pp; Europe is overweight ~1.6 pp; US positioning reads "neutral."
Corporate buybacks are running in parallel: through August, globally announced buybacks total roughly $1.3 trillion (US ~$1 trillion — announced, not yet executed). Net debt issuance is positive, net equity issuance is negative — companies are borrowing more while shrinking the equity float through buybacks.
What are CTA momentum signals saying?
European government-bond momentum is approaching mean-reversion trigger territory — France's 10-year versus Germany futures momentum signal hit -1.6; Germany sits at ~-1.4; the US and Japan at ~-1.2.
This means → JPMorgan's trend framework flips signals to neutral when they breach ±1.5, so these bond positions face technical de-risking and profit-taking pressure.
Equity momentum is calmer: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei, and MSCI EM average signals range from +0.4 to +0.8 — well below earlier extremes. CTA-style trend funds are "short-term long + long-term long" on the S&P 500, and "short-term short + long-term long" on the Nasdaq 100.
Gold vs. Bitcoin: which has more short-covering upside?
Since late July, gold ETFs have fully recouped prior outflows; Bitcoin-related ETFs have recovered only about half.
Yet Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) short interest sits near its year-to-date high, well above gold ETF (GLD) levels.
In plain terms = Bitcoin's "short crowding" is heavier — if hedging demand eases, short-covering buying could give Bitcoin stronger marginal support than gold. Whether existing positioning can underpin fresh inflows after September's cooldown is the key test for this call.
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