KeyBanc Initiates Coverage on SpaceX: Base Case Valuation Less Than Half Current Level, Lock-Up Expiry Pressure Persists Through Year-End
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KeyBanc's DCF model puts SpaceX's base-case enterprise value at roughly $1.02 trillion — less than half its current $2.2 trillion — and rates the stock Sector Weight with no price target, while a dense lock-up schedule will drip-feed selling pressure from August through December.
What rating did KeyBanc give, and why no price target?
KeyBanc initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Sector Weight rating — meaning it expects the stock to perform roughly in line with its sector — and set no specific price target.
Under its base case, a discounted-cash-flow model built on Starlink and other connectivity revenues yields an enterprise value of roughly $1.02 trillion.
This means → at KeyBanc's own numbers, the current $2.2 trillion market cap already prices in a highly optimistic long-term growth path. If execution falls short, the downside gap is wide.
How has the stock performed since the IPO?
SpaceX listed on June 12 at an IPO price of $135 and opened at $150.
At the time of the report, shares traded around $157–161, down more than 20% to 28% from their peak.
KeyBanc wrote: "SPCX has a significant disruptive growth path, but we believe this is reflected in the current valuation — the risk-reward looks fairly balanced."
Why is Starship the biggest valuation wildcard?
Starship — SpaceX's giant reusable rocket designed for satellite deployment, deep-space missions, and eventually Mars colonization — is the centerpiece of Musk's long-term value narrative.
KeyBanc notes the program remains immature, has hit multiple setbacks, and has slipped its timeline by years.
In plain terms = much of SpaceX's premium valuation is a bet that Starship will succeed and unlock a vast new addressable market. KeyBanc is saying the timeline to that success may be longer than the market assumes.
Why is the float so thin?
At IPO, only about 5% of SpaceX shares were freely tradable — one of the lowest float ratios among large-cap stocks.
This reflects a deliberate decision to limit early supply and support the price through scarcity.
KeyBanc flags this as "near-term liquidity uncertainty" — a thin float amplifies volatility, and when lock-up shares start entering the market, the impact could be outsized.
What does the lock-up schedule look like?
Per 22V Research: around August 10, roughly 20% unlocks (with an extra 10% if the stock is above $175); August 21, September 10, September 25, October 10, and October 25 each release roughly 7%.
Early November (around Q3 earnings) sees the single largest tranche at roughly 28%; by December 9, most insiders' remaining shares fully unlock.
This means → from August to December, a new wave of potential selling hits roughly every two to three weeks. The supply pressure is not a one-off event — it stretches across half a year.
How is the options market positioning around the unlock dates?
22V Research analyst Jeff Jacobson says he is watching options expiring around September 18 and considering selling $200-strike calls at $25 per share.
In plain terms = he sees a low probability that SpaceX reaches $200 in the near term, so he is suggesting holders sell call options to collect premium — effectively "renting out" upside they don't expect, to cushion against lock-up-driven downside.
The throughline for the second half: can SpaceX's valuation withstand wave after wave of lock-up supply before Starship progress gives the market a reason to re-price higher?
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。