KeyBanc Preview: Intel and AMD Server CPU Shipments Expected to Grow Significantly
Alina Collins
KeyBanc's pre-earnings note forecasts Intel server CPU shipments rising 25%-30% year-over-year in 2026 and AMD up 15%-20%, with both on track for 50%+ growth in 2027 — driven by AI demand and agentic workloads pulling traditional data-center expansion.
Why are server CPU shipments suddenly set to surge?
Analyst John Vinh's team cites two drivers: sustained AI demand, plus agentic workloads — AI tasks that run autonomously across multiple steps — pushing traditional data-center demand sharply higher.
Supply is improving at the same time. This means → it is not just demand pulling; available inventory is catching up, setting the stage for volume and price to rise together.
Intel is projected at 25%-30% YoY server CPU shipment growth in 2026, AMD at 15%-20%; both could exceed 50% growth in 2027.
When will these numbers face a reality check?
Intel reports Q2 earnings on July 23; AMD reports fiscal Q2 2026 on August 4.
In plain terms = these growth figures are KeyBanc's forward estimates, not confirmed results — the two earnings prints will show whether the call holds.
Why is the analog-chip segment also flagged as strong?
The team sees analog chips in a positive cycle, supported by four factors: better order visibility, longer lead times, solid industrial and data-center demand, and broad-based price increases.
This means → analog strength is not riding a single product hit; the entire supply-demand chain is turning warmer, a stronger cyclical-upturn signal.
What gives Monolithic Power Systems upside potential?
The bull case for Monolithic Power Systems rests on three points: pricing advantage, enterprise data-center revenue ramp, and early volume on the Vera Rubin platform.
Vera Rubin is Nvidia's next-generation GPU platform — KeyBanc expects Monolithic Power's share on that platform to reach 60%-70%.
This means → if Vera Rubin ships on schedule, Monolithic Power has the highest revenue leverage among peers.
Is the mobile segment entirely bearish?
The smartphone market is still deteriorating overall, but two pockets of strength stand out: early pull-in of Chinese smartphone application processors, and iPhone 18 modem share beating expectations — actual share at 50%, versus prior guidance of just 20%.
In plain terms = Intel's mobile business may not be as bad as the market fears, because two incremental drivers are not yet fully priced in.
What about Apple suppliers Qorvo, Skyworks, and Cirrus Logic?
Apple's inventory cuts may weigh on near-term outlooks for Qorvo, Skyworks Solutions, and Cirrus Logic.
The team notes, however, that the market has already priced in below-seasonal demand for all three. This reflects a situation where the bad news may already be in the stock — limiting further downside.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.