Kimmeridge: Up to Half of Planned U.S. Data Centers Face Risk of Delays or Cancellation
Nashnova编辑部
Investment firm Kimmeridge warns that up to 50% of planned U.S. data centers face delays or cancellation; this means AI-driven natural gas demand forecasts are at risk of a downgrade, and the energy sector's 'AI dividend' narrative is hitting real-world resistance.
Half of planned data centers may never get built — what's blocking them?
Kimmeridge managing partner Ben Dell says up to 50% of planned U.S. data centers risk delays or cancellation, driven by rising political pushback and the sheer complexity of physical infrastructure buildout.
His words: "The Silicon Valley model is running into real-world infrastructure bottlenecks." This means → tech companies are drawing blueprints far faster than grids, water systems, and land permits can follow.
In plain terms = getting a data center from a slide deck to actual power-on requires clearing hard physical constraints that money alone cannot accelerate.
Why has the political wind shifted so suddenly?
Pennsylvania, Texas, Ohio — states once considered project-friendly — now face bipartisan opposition to data center construction.
Data centers have become a political issue in U.S. midterm elections; local-level resistance and lawsuits are multiplying. This means → project approval is no longer just a business question — it is a ballot-box question.
Dell argues the ideal data center should achieve "zero impact" — no net effect on water use, land, emissions, or electricity prices. This reflects the industry's own recognition that without addressing community concerns, projects stall.
Is the natural gas bull case starting to crack?
U.S. natural gas demand growth is projected at roughly 30 billion cubic feet per day, with data centers contributing an estimated 5–10 billion cubic feet per day of that increase.
Dell warns: if data center delays materialize broadly, AI-related gas consumption will land at the low end of that range. This means → the "AI boosts gas demand" thesis that producers have been banking on may deliver far less than expected.
In plain terms = a decade of shale-gas oversupply crushed domestic prices; the industry was counting on AI-driven power demand to absorb excess capacity — but if the data centers don't get built, that demand is a mirage.
Two forces are pulling in opposite directions — which wins?
Headwind one: Big Tech capex is drawing investor skepticism, and public opposition to data centers is rising.
Headwind two: the other major source of gas demand growth is LNG exports — Kimmeridge itself holds a stake in the planned Commonwealth LNG terminal in Louisiana — but that line runs independently of data centers.
This reflects an asymmetry in risk for the natural gas bull case: its two legs — AI power demand and LNG exports — face very different odds. Whether data center delays materialize at scale will be the key test of the entire "AI dividend" narrative.
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