LME Copper Posts 11th Weekly Gain in 12 Weeks as Yangshan Copper Premium Hits Nearly Four-Year High
nashnova research
LME copper closed Friday at $14,521.50 per tonne, logging its 11th weekly gain in 12 weeks; the Yangshan copper premium — a gauge of Chinese import demand — rose to $124 per tonne, the highest since November 2022, signaling a clear pickup in physical buying.
Copper keeps climbing — who is actually buying?
LME copper rose 0.2% Friday to $14,521.50 per tonne. Year-to-date gains now approach 17%, with prices touching a record high earlier this month.
The Yangshan copper premium — the extra price Chinese buyers pay above LME for imported copper — hit $124 per tonne, a near four-year high.
This means → the rally is not just futures speculation. Physical buyers are bidding up real metal, a demand signal harder to fake than a price chart.
How are U.S. tariff expectations reshaping global copper flows?
Markets expect the Trump administration to impose tariffs on refined copper. That expectation has triggered a rush of copper shipments into the U.S. ahead of any formal action.
In plain terms = traders are front-running the tariff by stockpiling copper in America now, squeezing available supply everywhere else and pushing LME prices higher.
This reflects a "tariff arbitrage → cargo relocation → regional supply imbalance" transmission chain — not a straightforward demand-supply improvement.
The Fed just hiked — why didn't copper sell off?
The Fed announced its first rate hike since 2023 this week, with hawkish signals pointing to further tightening.
Normally, higher rates raise holding costs and weigh on industrial commodities. Yet this hike's actual impact on copper has been relatively muted.
This means → confidence in copper demand — tariff-driven front-loading plus China's import recovery — is, for now, outweighing rate pressure. The bull case has not broken.
What decides whether the rally continues?
BMI, Fitch's research arm, expects base-metal prices to trade largely range-bound in coming weeks as markets digest an unexpected production drop in Chile — the world's largest copper supplier.
Analysts add that the macro backdrop remains fragile, with markets awaiting a definitive decision on U.S. copper tariffs.
In plain terms = copper is likely to chop sideways at elevated levels in the short term. The variable that breaks the stalemate is when — and whether — tariffs actually land. Imposition could accelerate the rally; a reversal would trigger concentrated selling.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。