Marvell Raises Guidance for Two Consecutive Quarters, FY2028 Revenue Target Lifted to $18 Billion
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Marvell Technology raised its full-year revenue guidance for the second consecutive quarter, lifting the FY2028 target from $16.5 billion to $18 billion at roughly 50% growth — AI infrastructure spending is shifting from 'better than expected' to 'structurally accelerating.'
How strong were the numbers?
Fiscal Q2 revenue hit a record $2.739 billion, up 37% year-over-year and 13% sequentially, beating guidance midpoints.
Data center contributed $2.17 billion — now 79% of total revenue — with year-over-year growth jumping from 27% last quarter to 46%.
Q3 guidance is even more aggressive: revenue of roughly $3.15 billion, non-GAAP EPS of roughly $1.10, both above consensus.
This means → Marvell has now raised the bar immediately after clearing it, two quarters in a row. The growth slope is steepening, not plateauing.
If results beat expectations, why did the stock drop?
Shares fell over 7% after hours, driven by concern over the timing of revenue from a large Google engagement.
Management was explicit: custom silicon revenue will ramp meaningfully only in FY2029 and beyond, not next quarter.
In plain terms = investors saw a very large pie but realized they won't taste it for another year or two — so near-term sentiment sold off first.
How big is the Google deal?
A week before earnings, Marvell filed an 8-K disclosing an expanded agreement with a "key hyperscaler"; CEO Matt Murphy referenced the TPU ecosystem on the call, and analysts broadly identified the counterparty as Google.
J.P. Morgan's Harlan Sur and Melius Research's Ben Reitzes both estimated that if all milestones are met, cumulative revenue over six years would reach roughly $120 billion — about $18 billion per year.
Murphy did not confirm the figure directly but told Reitzes: "Your math is right."
This means → this is not a routine order but the foundation of Marvell's growth curve for years to come — whether that foundation supports on-time construction is a question FY2029 will answer.
Beyond AI accelerators, what else does the deal cover?
The agreement extends well past inference accelerators to include storage controllers, network interface controllers, memory interface controllers, and near-memory compute.
In plain terms = Google is not just buying Marvell's "main chip" — it is handing Marvell the surrounding silicon ecosystem as well.
CXL memory expansion — a technology that lets multiple servers share a common memory pool — is already deployed at scale across several hyperscalers, partly because memory scarcity is forcing customers to redesign system architectures around CXL.
Why is optical interconnect the single biggest growth driver?
Murphy stated that interconnect is the largest single contributor to the $1.5 billion FY2028 revenue raise.
On the scale-out side: 1.6T optical DSPs are ramping alongside still-strong 800G demand; 51.2T switch products are on track to more than double this year.
Scale-up optics carry even more upside: NPO — near-package optics, placing optical transceivers directly on the chip package — is expanding to multiple customers, and the outlook has been raised significantly from roughly $300 million last quarter.
This reflects a shift in the AI-cluster bottleneck — from "is there enough compute?" to "can chips move data to each other fast enough?" Marvell sits squarely at that chokepoint.
New CFO in place — where are margins headed?
New CFO Dan Durn, with over thirty years of senior semiconductor finance experience, made his first appearance on this call.
Non-GAAP operating margin is expected to enter the 38%–40% long-term target range in fiscal Q4 and reach the upper end in FY2028; the target range will be reset at the October 6 investor day.
The company also plans to prepay roughly $1 billion to suppliers this fiscal year to lock in capacity amid industry-wide tightness.
This means → the new management team's signal is clear — spending aggressively to secure capacity while committing to margin expansion. Their confidence in the growth trajectory is written on the check.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。