Memory Chips Elevated to National Security Issue as Apple Tests CXMT DRAM
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SK Group chairman Chey Tae-won warned that the global fight over AI memory has escalated from commercial competition to geopolitical contest — while Apple has begun testing Chinese chipmaker CXMT's DRAM. Korea's HBM monopoly premium now faces a two-front squeeze from Chinese capacity and U.S. policy.
How tight is the memory market right now?
SK Hynix dominated HBM — high-bandwidth memory, the ultra-fast storage built for AI chips — with a 58% revenue share in Q1 2026. Samsung and Micron each held 21%.
Chey forecasts AI semiconductor demand to grow 60–100% year-on-year next year, with overall memory demand up 50–60%.
Yet major producers have almost no meaningful capacity expansion planned for next year. This means → the supply-demand gap is not closing — it is widening faster.
He described the corporate scramble for memory supply as something "that can only be called panic."
Why is a chip-industry leader arguing against high prices?
Chey stated plainly: chipmakers should not artificially restrict supply to maintain high prices.
His logic — "Even if margins compress slightly, expanding supply to grow the market itself delivers greater returns over the long run."
In plain terms = sustained high prices push buyers toward alternatives and attract new competitors and government retaliation. This reflects a Korean market leader acknowledging that monopoly pricing is not sustainable.
How far has Chinese capacity expanded?
CXMT (长鑫存储) expects to reach 350,000 wafers per month by end-2026, which would make China the world's second-largest DRAM capacity holder.
CXMT is sprinting toward a STAR Market IPO, projecting H1 2026 net profit of RMB 50–57 billion — a more-than-six-fold year-on-year increase.
This means → CXMT is no longer a lab-stage challenger. It is a profitable, scaled competitor with an IPO timeline.
Why is Apple testing Chinese memory chips?
The Financial Times reported that Apple has begun testing CXMT's DRAM chips for devices sold in the Chinese market.
Apple is also lobbying the U.S. government to allow broader use of these chips, and has approached YMTC about memory procurement — though no deal has been reached.
In plain terms = the world's largest consumer-electronics buyer is actively diversifying its supply chain away from a Korea-only basket. This signals a structural shift in the memory buyer's market.
What is the U.S. doing on the policy front?
Micron is pushing Congress to pass new legislation imposing export restrictions on chipmaking equipment used by Chinese competitors.
According to Reuters, the measures would also pressure foreign equipment suppliers serving Chinese fabs to comply with U.S. export controls.
This means → the U.S. strategy targets the equipment layer — throttling the speed of Chinese memory expansion, not just restricting finished-chip exports.
Where are CXMT's weak spots?
Yield rates and advanced HBM remain CXMT's unanswered questions — AI accelerators demand memory performance far above consumer-grade chips.
But the competitive landscape has already shifted: capacity is expanding, governments are classifying memory as a strategic asset, and buyers are actively seeking alternatives.
The central question: can Korean producers sustain their HBM monopoly premium through 2027, facing the twin variables of Chinese capacity and U.S. policy?
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.