Ming-Chi Kuo: Foldable iPhone May Be Announced Alongside Other Products but With Delayed Sales Launch; Supply Remains Tight Through Year-End
nashnova research
Apple supply-chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says the foldable iPhone will ship only 7–8 million units in H2 2026, with under 1 million in Q3 — making an iPhone X-style split all but certain: unveiled on stage in September, but pre-orders and sales pushed to Q4.
Why might the foldable iPhone be "shown but not sold"?
The bottleneck is production: Q3 assembly shipments are just 500K–1 million units, roughly 10% of the full H2 total. This means → there is simply not enough inventory to support a simultaneous September launch.
By contrast, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are expected to ship about 22 million units in Q3 — more than enough stock. Their launch schedule is unaffected.
In plain terms = at the same keynote, the foldable will be the one you can look at but not buy. Pre-orders and actual sales wait until Q4, and supply stays tight through year-end.
How close is this to the iPhone X playbook?
On September 12, 2017, Apple unveiled iPhone X alongside iPhone 8/8 Plus. But iPhone X was hard to manufacture — Q3 shipments came in under 1 million. Pre-orders slipped to October 27; sales began November 3.
Kuo sees the same core logic: both products lead with a breakthrough experience, and both hit an early production wall.
The key difference — iPhone X ultimately shipped about 30 million units in H2 2017, and supply pressure eased by late November. The foldable iPhone sits at just 7–8 million for H2, with a higher price tag and greater manufacturing complexity. This means → the shortage cycle will likely last longer and ease more slowly.
At $2,300–$2,500, will demand hold up?
Kuo's checks with carriers, retail channels, and resellers point to strong demand at a price of roughly $2,300–$2,500, at least through end-2026.
He expects pre-orders to sell out fast, with delivery lead times stretching to four to six weeks or longer and staying there through December. This means → scarce supply plus a highly recognizable design will fuel significant short-term resale premiums.
Kuo notes that scalper prices 50%–100% above retail are "not impossible."
When will we actually know if demand is real?
Kuo warns explicitly: current market hype cannot reliably predict long-term demand.
The best observation window, he argues, is late 2026 through Q1 2027 — by then, holiday-season effects and launch excitement will have faded, and early production problems should be largely resolved.
In plain terms = today's frenzy may just be novelty plus scarcity. Whether foldable iPhone demand is truly sustainable can only be judged once the hype cools and supply catches up.
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