Montage Semiconductor Lockup Expiry Looms as China AI Chip Stocks Face Selling Pressure Test
nashnova research
About 14 million restricted shares in MetaX Integrated Circuits unlock this Thursday, and analysts expect "significant selling pressure" — last week's lock-up expiry at Moore Threads wiped nearly RMB 49 billion (~$7.3 bn) off its market cap in a single day, putting the entire Chinese AI-chip sector on edge.
What exactly is unlocking — and why does it matter?
MetaX listed on Shanghai's STAR Market last December; its stock surged by several hundred percent on debut.
Under listing rules, early shareholders' stakes must stay locked for a set period. That lock on roughly 14 million shares expires Thursday — once it lifts, holders are free to sell.
This means → a large block of shares acquired at very low cost is about to hit the open market. If sell orders cluster, the price impact will be immediate.
How bad was the Moore Threads precedent?
Moore Threads, a peer in the same AI-chip space, hit its own lock-up expiry last week. The result: nearly RMB 49 billion (~$7.3 billion) in market cap erased in a single session.
In plain terms = on unlock day, a wave of early investors chose to cash out. Sell orders overwhelmed buyers, and the stock cratered.
This reflects a reality the headline prices obscure: investor conviction in high-valuation AI-chip names is far more fragile than it appears.
Who are China's AI-chip "Four Little Dragons"?
MetaX and Moore Threads, along with Biren Technology and Enflame, are collectively known as China's AI-chip "Four Little Dragons" — all building domestic GPU (graphics processing unit — the core hardware for AI training) alternatives.
Both MetaX and Moore Threads debuted last December, riding peak enthusiasm for the "domestic substitution" narrative, with first-day gains of several hundred percent each.
This means → current share prices already embed very high expectations. Once a lock-up unleashes concentrated selling, elevated valuations become the weakest link.
What is the real test this Thursday?
The core question goes beyond MetaX alone: can the entire Chinese AI-chip sector absorb the frothy valuations built up since listing?
Moore Threads' plunge has already made investors acutely sensitive to lock-up shocks — if MetaX follows the same script, sentiment could spill over to the rest of the "Four Little Dragons."
In plain terms = Thursday is a confidence vote. If selling pressure stays manageable, the market is willing to pay for the long-term domestic-AI-chip story. If another collapse follows, it signals that current valuations simply cannot hold.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。