Morgan Stanley: Apple App Store Monthly Revenue Posts First Year-over-Year Decline in Four Years
Nashnova编辑部
Morgan Stanley, citing Sensor Tower data, flags that Apple's App Store net revenue fell 0.6% year-on-year through August 17 — the first monthly decline in nearly four years — posing roughly $45 million in downside risk to September-quarter services revenue.
How big is the App Store revenue drop?
Through August 17, App Store net revenue fell 0.6% year-on-year, the first negative monthly reading in nearly four years.
Growth decelerated 170 basis points from June, even as the prior-year comparison base eased by 200 basis points. This means → the bar got lower, yet growth still slowed — real demand is weakening.
Using August 17 as the quarter cut-off, Q3 App Store revenue growth lands at just +0.5%, below Morgan Stanley's prior estimate of +1%.
What does this mean for Apple's broader results?
The App Store drag translates to roughly 20 basis points and ~$45 million of downside risk against Morgan Stanley's September-quarter services revenue growth forecast of +9.5%.
The team sees little room for a near-term rebound, citing four headwinds: lower commission rates, external-link policy changes, soft gaming demand, and currency drag.
AppleCare price adjustments offer a partial offset, but a limited one. In plain terms = Apple is trying to claw back some revenue through warranty price hikes, but it won't cover the gap.
How is the hardware side holding up?
Morgan Stanley holds its Q3 iPhone shipment forecast at roughly 54 million units, corresponding to about 58 million for the September quarter.
iPad shipment estimates were cut by 1 million units, reflecting demand elasticity after recent price increases. This means → the margin-for-price trade-off is running into buyer resistance.
What signal is the PC market sending?
Morgan Stanley's Greater China tech-hardware team reports July notebook ODM (original design manufacturer — firms that design and build entire laptops on behalf of brands) shipments fell 24% year-on-year, the steepest drop in nearly 40 months.
Actual volumes came in 4% below Morgan Stanley's own estimate, driven by both weak demand and supply constraints.
This reflects an accelerating erosion in PC demand — pressure that extends well beyond Apple to the broader consumer-electronics hardware sector.
Why are cloud capital expenditures being revised up?
Morgan Stanley's cloud-capex tracker now projects 2027 cloud capital spending growth at +38%. The bank's own estimate stands at $1.61 trillion, above the $1.39 trillion consensus.
The largest upward revisions by company: Alphabet (+$17.8 billion), Meta (+$8.8 billion), Microsoft (+$7.5 billion), Amazon (+$6.0 billion), and Nebius (+$5.0 billion).
SpaceX has also been added to the tracker, contributing $120.9 billion in 2027 incremental capex (a ~$62 billion year-on-year increase). In plain terms = the consumer side is contracting, but Big Tech is pouring even more into cloud and AI.
What comes next?
Whether App Store revenue turns positive in the remainder of August is the key data point for gauging Apple's September-quarter services performance.
If the full month stays negative, Morgan Stanley's +9.5% services growth forecast faces further downward revision.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.