Morgan Stanley: Copper Price Pullback Is a Buying Opportunity, Q4 Target Price at $14,250/Ton
Nashnova编辑部
Morgan Stanley holds its Q4 LME copper target at $14,250/t, calling the recent pullback a buying window; the U.S. copper-tariff decision is the single biggest catalyst for the second half.
Why does Morgan Stanley say buy now?
The recent copper selloff is temporary, the bank argues — the dip is an entry point, not a trend reversal.
Morgan Stanley keeps its Q4 London Metal Exchange (LME) copper target at $14,250 per tonne.
This means → the bank sees further upside; if macro conditions improve or a tariff delay triggers another import rush, copper could overshoot that target.
What drove the rally in the first place?
Heavy imports by both the U.S. and China tightened supply simultaneously — LME copper stocks fell, and the spot premium over three-month futures hit its highest since 2021.
In plain terms = the two biggest buyers were grabbing copper at the same time, draining inventories and pushing spot prices well above futures.
But high prices are now choking demand: in the U.S., a steep futures contango shut the spot-import arbitrage window; in China, the arbitrage has flipped toward exports.
How weak has Chinese demand actually gotten?
China's implied refined-copper imports — a comprehensive estimate aggregating multiple data channels — fell 12.5% year-on-year in July, after rising 3.8% YoY in Q2.
The Yangshan copper premium — a gauge of how much Chinese buyers will pay above the global benchmark for physical copper — has pulled back accordingly.
This means → Chinese buyers have stepped back at these prices; short-term restocking momentum has clearly faded.
What changed on the inventory side?
In the three trading days through August 19, LME warranted stocks rose by 64,000 tonnes — the largest weekly inflow since 2020.
In plain terms = traders exploited the spread between expensive near-month and cheaper far-month contracts to deliver copper into warehouses for an arbitrage profit — stocks jumped sharply.
This reflects a market structure shifting from extreme tightness toward loosening.
What is the key thing to watch in H2?
Morgan Stanley names the U.S. copper-tariff decision as the single most important catalyst for the second half.
Whether tariffs are delayed, imposed immediately, exempted, or deferred would have sharply different effects on the copper-price path.
This means → copper's near-term direction is not purely a supply-demand story — policy is the swing factor.
What about the longer view — 2027?
Morgan Stanley is cautious on 2027: U.S. import demand may weaken by then, while new mine supply comes online.
In plain terms = the copper market is tight in the short term, but the medium-term balance could shift toward surplus.
The final tariff timeline will be the pivotal checkpoint for whether this copper rally can extend.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.