Morgan Stanley: TSMC CoWoS Allocation Tilting Toward AMD by 2027, Nvidia's Share Narrowing
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Morgan Stanley expects TSMC's CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity allocation to shift structurally in 2027 — AMD's share jumps from 9% to 20%, Nvidia's slips from 53.4% to 45.6%, signaling a reshuffling of the AI chip competitive landscape.
Why is AMD's CoWoS demand tripling?
AMD's demand for CoWoS — an advanced packaging technology that bonds chips and high-bandwidth memory onto one substrate — is projected to surge from 130,000 wafers in 2026 to 530,000 in 2027, a 308% year-on-year jump.
The biggest driver is the sixth-generation Epyc Venice server processor, whose CoWoS wafer demand rises from 50,000 to 270,000 — more than a fivefold increase.
This means → AMD is betting heavily on its next-gen server CPU to capture AI compute share, and Venice is its strongest card.
Why is Nvidia's share being squeezed?
Nvidia's 2027 CoWoS wafer demand is forecast at 1.2 million, up 57% year on year — absolute volume is still growing.
But industry-wide demand is expected to grow 93%, nearly double Nvidia's pace, dragging its share from 53.4% down to 45.6%.
In plain terms = Nvidia is not getting weaker — AMD is simply growing faster and taking a larger slice of the pie.
Why does AMD consume more CoWoS per chip?
The core reason is architectural: AMD uses a chiplet-based modular design — multiple small dies assembled together — which consumes more CoWoS wafers per processor.
Nvidia's Rubin CPU is a monolithic design — one single die — requiring relatively fewer CoWoS wafers per chip.
This means → even at similar shipment volumes, AMD's packaging appetite is structurally larger — a difference baked into the architecture itself.
Can Venice CPU shipments surpass Nvidia's?
Morgan Stanley forecasts AMD's 2nm Venice CPU shipments at 6.75 million units in 2027, up from 1.25 million in 2026.
Nvidia's Vera CPU is projected at 5 million units over the same period — Venice would exceed it by 1.75 million.
This reflects AMD's push to ramp capacity more aggressively, aiming to break through in the server AI accelerator market.
What is the key test in 2027?
Total industry CoWoS wafer demand is projected to reach 2.7 million, driven by the acceleration of Agentic AI — a technology direction where AI autonomously executes complex tasks.
Whether AMD can deliver on its 530,000-wafer demand target will be the critical checkpoint for a real market-share breakthrough.
Put simply = the numbers look impressive, but they are still forecasts — AMD's real test is whether it can fill that capacity in 2027.
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