Morgan Stanley: U.S.-China Relations Shifting Toward "Managed Strategic Competition"
Nashnova编辑部
Morgan Stanley sees US-China relations locked into a "managed strategic competition" framework — the September summit is unlikely to resolve core tensions, and investors should shift focus from trade breakthroughs to structural variables like supply-chain realignment and semiconductor self-sufficiency.
What does "managed strategic competition" actually mean?
Morgan Stanley uses the term to describe the baseline state of US-China relations: both sides accept that fundamental disagreements will persist, but both need enough stability to pursue their own economic and strategic goals.
This means → don't expect a return to deep economic integration. The ceiling on cooperation has been lowered, but the floor under decoupling has been reinforced.
In plain terms = they're not making up and they're not breaking up — they're drawing lines and staying on their own side.
What do the trade numbers look like now?
Since the 2025 escalation, US imports from China have dropped sharply. Recent stabilization hasn't brought them anywhere close to prior levels.
Meanwhile, China's exports to other markets remain strong — its position in global goods trade has not been significantly weakened by US-China friction.
This reflects a structural shift: direct bilateral trade is shrinking, but the two economies remain deeply intertwined through global manufacturing and technology networks.
Why is semiconductor self-sufficiency the core of the long game?
Morgan Stanley forecasts China's domestic AI chip self-sufficiency rate will rise from 33% in 2024 to 70% by 2030, driven by advanced-node capacity expansion and yield improvements.
This means → the strategic leverage US export controls currently provide will narrow as China's self-sufficiency rises.
In plain terms = the chokehold still works today, but the window is closing — and that's exactly why this is the most contested front.
The bank expects AI and tech-control issues to feature prominently in September summit discussions.
What can the September summit actually change?
Morgan Stanley's view is blunt: the summit is an important catalyst, but it won't fundamentally alter the competitive landscape.
On currency, the bank does not see the renminbi as a core summit topic. It projects a modest adjustment to 6.75 per dollar by end-2026.
This means → markets may see short-term moves on summit signals, but medium-to-long-term pricing remains driven by structural variables.
What should investors be watching?
Morgan Stanley's core advice: shift focus from expecting a "comprehensive trade breakthrough" to tracking three structural variables — supply-chain realignment, semiconductor self-sufficiency gains, and the evolution of tech restrictions.
The two economies are stabilizing in direct trade terms, but remain deeply linked through global manufacturing and technology networks.
In plain terms = don't bet on a grand reconciliation — watch the structural forces that are slowly rewriting the rules of the game.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.