Multiple Institutions Forecast ECB to Raise Rates Again by December 2026
nashnova research
After the ECB's September meeting, several major banks raised their rate forecasts, expecting a 25 bp hike in December; oil back above $100 a barrel and inflation stuck above the 2% target are the twin drivers behind this hawkish shift.
Who is betting on two consecutive hikes?
Nomura, Citi, and Nordea all expect the ECB to raise rates by 25 bp in both December 2026 and March 2027, pushing the deposit rate to 3%.
Nomura economist Andrzej Szczepaniak put it plainly: "The Iran war has lasted long enough for energy prices to stay elevated — a December hike is more likely than not."
This means → these three houses see oil not as a short-lived spike but as a force feeding through into core inflation, compelling back-to-back moves.
Nordea added a key detail: the ECB's own baseline projections show inflation above target from 2026 through 2028, "clearly tilted toward further tightening."
Why do more banks expect only one hike?
Bloomberg Economics, UBS, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, RBC, and Deutsche Bank forecast just one hike in December, lifting the deposit rate to 2.75% and then pausing.
UBS economist Reinhard Cluse laid out the full path: hike to 2.75% in December → reverse with a cut in Q4 2027 → settle at 2.5%.
In plain terms = this camp's logic is "put out the fire, then wait" — one hike answers the oil-price pressure, and after that the data decides.
BNP Paribas economist Paul Hollingsworth was more explicit: after the December hike, the ECB holds 2.75% through all of 2027 — a "higher for longer" strategy.
Could the ECB move as early as October?
Goldman economists Jari Stehn and Alexandre Stott flagged three triggers: sustained energy-price rises, a September HICP overshoot, or early signs of second-round effects — any one could pull a hike forward to October.
Their words: "The bar for hiking to 3% is not that high."
This means → Goldman's baseline is a single December hike, but they left an explicit "trip wire" for earlier action in October.
What worries the doves?
TS Lombard economist Davide Oneglia warned that rushing rates to 3% could "kill the green shoots of the current recovery."
In plain terms = the very economic resilience that hawks cite as room to tighten could itself be destroyed by over-tightening — the case for hiking and the cost of hiking point at the same thing.
Some other institutions believe the hiking cycle is already over, though the original report did not name them specifically.
Where do markets and economists disagree?
Market pricing is more aggressive than the economist consensus, implying more than three hikes by the end of 2027.
UBS's Cluse noted that market pricing is "notably more hawkish," implying roughly 75 bp of further hikes over the next year.
This reflects a market that is buying insurance against the worst case — oil staying elevated plus sticky inflation — while most economists' baselines still leave room for an oil-price pullback.
Whether energy prices retreat before winter is the single most important checkpoint for the ECB's actual path.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。