Nasdaq Falls 0.5% as Chip Stocks Under Pressure, Dual Test of Nvidia Earnings and Jackson Hole Looms
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US equities opened a pivotal week split — the Nasdaq fell 0.5% with chip stocks leading losses, while Nvidia's Wednesday earnings and the Fed chair's Jackson Hole debut will simultaneously test AI profit delivery and the global rate benchmark.
The three major indices diverged — why are chip stocks dragging again?
The Dow rose 134 points (+0.3%), the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5% — the split centers on semiconductors.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF had surged back into bull-market territory earlier this month, but its past week has been chaotic, with gains quickly unwinding.
This means → confidence in AI compute has not collapsed, but it has entered the "show me the money" phase.
Two stress tests this week — what does each one probe?
Nvidia reports Wednesday: the market is no longer just watching demand for the next-gen Vera Rubin compute cluster — the real question is whether AI inference compute can convert into sustained revenue and cash flow.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote at Jackson Hole on Friday: the official topic is payment innovation — low apparent market impact — but any marginal signal could be over-read.
In plain terms = one tests "can the AI story make money," the other tests "will the price of money change" — both answers land in the same week.
AI and non-AI stocks are on a rare seesaw — what does that signal?
Goldman Sachs data shows the 40-day correlation between its broad AI basket and S&P 500 non-AI constituents has dropped to roughly −0.6 — the first deep negative reading on record.
This means → money is not leaving the market; it is rotating out of AI into everything else. Over the past five sessions, the best performers were "AI losers" and inflation-sensitive baskets.
The pricing logic for AI compute is under pressure: the LLM spending index has fallen nearly half from its May peak, and hyperscaler credit spreads keep widening.
Yet the narrative has not broken — Anthropic's annualized revenue tops $65 billion, OpenAI's is around $40 billion, median S&P 500 profit grew 14% last quarter, and AI infrastructure still drives roughly half of the index's earnings growth.
Fund managers say they see risk — so why are they still all-in?
BofA's August survey: a record 56% bet on a US "no landing," a net 37% expect double-digit earnings growth, and 72% believe the Fed will not hike before the midterms.
Meanwhile, global equity net overweight hit 56% — the highest since November 2021 — cash dropped to the sixth-lowest on record at 3.5%, and bond net underweight widened to 39%.
In plain terms = everyone says "I know there's risk," but everyone's money is on "nothing will go wrong" — if this week's two events deliver a bearish combo, there is almost no defensive cushion.
Why do rates and oil make the risk asymmetric?
The US 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.30% last week; the Treasury then announced it would at least double long-end buybacks, nudging yields lower — but by Friday's close the decline had nearly fully reversed.
Brent crude remains stubbornly above $90 a barrel, up over 50% year-to-date, pressing steadily on inflation expectations and long-duration bonds.
This reflects a persistent upward pull in the rate market — even when policymakers intervene, the effect is quickly absorbed by oil and inflation repricing.
If things go wrong, how sharp could the sell-off be?
On the supportive side: roughly 96% of S&P 500 constituents are in their buyback window, with over $1 trillion in authorized repurchases providing steady demand; trend-following funds hold about $140 billion in global equities, with a positive directional bias.
On the risk side: a severe one-month drawdown could trigger over $150 billion in systematic selling globally — the first sell trigger sits roughly 4% below current levels.
Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has opened new positions in Visa, Mastercard, and four other high-cash-flow companies. This means → some smart money is already actively de-risking away from AI concentration, preparing for the "just in case."
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.