Negative Sentiment Building Up, Bitcoin Momentum May Reignite
N.R. Finch
Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White argues that after falling nearly 50% from its $120,000-plus high to around $66,000, Bitcoin now shows three converging signals — deep negative sentiment, returning ETF inflows, and price action decoupling from U.S. equities — pointing to a potential outperformance in the weeks ahead.
How far has Bitcoin fallen, and where does it rank among assets?
After hitting a high above $120,000 last November, Bitcoin has slid to roughly $66,000 — a drop of nearly half.
On a risk-adjusted return basis, Bitcoin ranked last over the past year among major asset classes, trailing the Nikkei, FTSE 100, S&P 500, a 60/40 portfolio (the classic 60% stocks + 40% bonds mix), gold, crude oil, and even silver.
This means → it is not just the absolute price that fell; once volatility is factored in, Bitcoin delivered the worst bang for the risk across every major asset.
How negative is the sentiment, exactly?
Of the 48 cryptocurrencies tracked by Bloomberg, the share trading within 5% of their one-year high has fallen to its lowest level since 2022.
In plain terms = almost no token is anywhere near its peak price — market mood has reverted to the depths of the last bear cycle.
Yet White's logic runs in reverse: the worse the sentiment and the lighter the positioning, the more likely this marks a bottom rather than confirmation of further decline.
What has changed on the money-flow and price-action front?
Weekly net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have risen to nearly $1 billion, the highest since May.
In recent sessions, Bitcoin gained 3%–4% even as U.S. equities weakened — its correlation with traditional risk assets has noticeably dropped.
This means → capital is flowing back in, and Bitcoin is breaking out of its "stocks fall, I fall too" pattern — independent price action is strengthening.
What is White's conclusion, and what supports the bullish case?
He combines three signals — constructive recent price action + uncrowded positioning + a stretch of low returns — and calls it "a good setup for further gains over the coming weeks."
The core logic: low risk-adjusted returns have historically been a leading indicator of a bottom, not a confirmation of continued decline.
This reflects a classic contrarian framework — when almost no one is bullish and positions are largely cleared, that is precisely when momentum tends to reset.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.