Nomura: AI Boom Masks Rising U.S. Equity Risk Premium
nashnova research
Nomura warns that the AI rally is masking deep fragility in U.S. assets — America's net foreign debt now equals 80% of all global creditor-nation assets, and any reversal in tech stocks could trigger a simultaneous selloff in U.S. equities and the dollar.
What is Nomura actually saying?
Chief analyst Rob Subbaraman's team delivers a blunt verdict: the AI boom is masking a sustained rise in the U.S. risk premium.
This means → the AI narrative is propping up equity valuations and pulling global capital into dollar assets, but underneath that filter, risk keeps repricing higher.
In plain terms = the AI story is so compelling that investors are overlooking how expensive — and how fragile — U.S. assets have become.
How large is the U.S. external debt?
America's net international investment position (NIIP) — essentially what the U.S. owes the rest of the world — has reached $21.9 trillion, or 71% of GDP.
That liability now accounts for 80% of total global creditor-nation assets. This means → eight out of every ten dollars the world has "saved" are parked in the U.S.
U.S. foreign portfolio liabilities quadrupled from $9.2 trillion pre-financial-crisis to $37.4 trillion by March 2026.
This reflects a one-directional concentration of global capital into dollar assets far beyond what most investors intuitively grasp.
Does the "no alternative" argument still hold?
Markets have long relied on "TINA" — There Is No Alternative — the belief that dollar assets have no substitute.
Nomura directly challenges that conviction: at this level of concentration, once foreign investors begin to sell, the selling itself creates more selling.
This means → a sharp U.S. equity decline is not just an American event — it would ripple through global capital flows and push the dollar down at the same time.
What is the "concentration trap" in the AI trade?
Nomura's core logic chain: AI narrative supports valuations → global capital pours in → holdings become highly concentrated → the higher the concentration, the larger the reversal shock.
In plain terms = everyone is crowding through the same door — the narrower it gets, the worse the stampede.
The point is not that AI lacks real value. The point is that the fragility of the trade structure has become a standalone risk, separate from AI fundamentals, and it needs to be priced on its own.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。