Nomura: Hong Kong Hedge Funds Overweight AI but Refuse to Add, Anthropic IPO May Trigger October Sell-Off
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Nomura strategist Yoshitaka Suda met 45 hedge-fund investors in Hong Kong and found most still overweight AI yet firmly refusing to add; July's drawdown has the industry in wait-and-see mode, and an Anthropic IPO as early as October could whipsaw AI stocks from rally to retail stampede.
What shape are these hedge funds in?
Nomura quant strategist Yoshitaka Suda met 45 investors in Hong Kong last week — roughly 70% fundamental long-short, 20% event-driven or quant, and 10% macro.
Most are still positive year-to-date, carried by the rally before June, but the severity of July's drawdown has pushed sentiment firmly into "wait and see."
This means → even managers sitting on gains are paralyzed by peak-to-trough drawdown rules inside their own firms — especially at platform and multi-strategy funds, where internal incentives punish giving back performance.
What exactly is the AI positioning?
The consensus is clear: cautious short-term, still bullish long-term on AI. Several investors stressed that recent volatility was "entirely supply-demand driven" — fundamentals are intact.
Long-short funds that rode the April-to-June AI rally mostly cut gross exposure in July but kept their AI overweight — while making clear they "won't net-buy from here."
In plain terms = they're holding AI stocks but refusing to add a single share. Korean equity leveraged-ETF assets have shrunk sharply and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) implied volatility is normalizing — signs the market is cooling, not panicking.
Where does the next AI stock rotation go?
Most respondents expect the medium-term focus to shift from "AI enablers" — semiconductor and data-center builders — to "AI adopters" — companies using AI to boost their own productivity.
Before that happens, the market will keep swinging between hyperscaler capex spenders and AI enablers.
This reflects Nomura's analogy to the dot-com era: "AI enabler" stocks still have recovery potential, but the rotation is driven by capital flows, not fundamentals alone.
Why could Anthropic's IPO first lift and then crush AI stocks?
Many investors are watching Anthropic's mega-IPO closely; reports suggest it could land as early as October.
Nomura flags a "rally-then-reverse" script — similar to what aerospace stocks did around SpaceX's listing: AI stocks outperform in September on roadshow hype, then underperform in October as investors cash out.
This means → once selling reaches critical mass, the risk of a retail stampede rises sharply. Margin-funded retail investors have barely stopped out so far, but once losses breach -20%, forced selling "rises dramatically."
What other risks are building beneath the surface?
Rate anxiety: U.S. Treasury yields are climbing, yet Treasury implied volatility stays low — this "price moving, insurance not" mismatch unnerves some investors.
SaaS valuation paradox: high-multiple SaaS stocks keep outperforming even as rates rise. Nomura notes that Japanese rates used to explain SaaS outperformance, but since July that relationship has visibly broken down.
U.S. midterm elections: betting markets now show a Democratic sweep of both chambers as the base case. Hong Kong investors worry that if election-driven trading surges suddenly in the fall, it could trigger another AI reversal. Nomura flags that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's probability of winning the Democratic presidential nomination has jumped to roughly 20% in the past two weeks — a continued rise could weigh on risk appetite.
What is Nomura's own call?
Nomura maintains its prior view: a full recovery in fundamentals-driven stock-picking is more likely to arrive next month, once the summer lull ends.
The Anthropic IPO window is the critical test of that thesis.
In plain terms = Nomura thinks the market isn't directionless — it's waiting for a signal. Anthropic's listing is that signal, and it could either ignite a rally or detonate the risks.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.