Nomura Raises Fed Rate Hike Forecast: Driven by Oil Prices and Inflation, Still Below Market Pricing
nashnova research
Nomura lifted its Fed rate-hike call to two increases this year, yet that still sits well below the market's implied pricing of four-plus — making this gap one of the widest institutional divergences on the rate path today.
What exactly did Nomura change?
Nomura now expects the Fed to hike this week and again in December, then hold rates steady through 2027.
The trigger: surging oil prices and sticky inflation that exceeded Nomura's prior assumptions.
Economist Aichi Amemiya wrote: "Limited progress on inflation, combined with a sharp rise in energy prices, prompted us to revise our earlier call."
How many hikes is the market pricing in?
Current market-implied pricing already exceeds four rate hikes — more than double Nomura's forecast.
A CNBC Fed survey shows most respondents expect at least two hikes in the next year; a third expect three or more.
This means → even after the upgrade, Nomura remains firmly in the dovish camp among major houses, with a significant gap to the consensus.
Why is Nomura still so dovish?
First, policy rates in most economies are already near or above neutral — the room for further hikes is inherently limited.
Second, this inflation cycle is cost-push (oil, supply chains) and over time drags on growth rather than stimulating it. In plain terms = prices are rising because costs are high, not because the economy is overheating — rate hikes don't fix the root cause.
Third, bond yields are already climbing, financial conditions are tightening on their own, and fiscal-stimulus room is shrinking — the central bank may not need to step on the brake again.
What does Iran have to do with the ECB?
Nomura also raised its ECB forecast, now expecting one hike in December and another in March.
The Iran conflict, Nomura argues, could keep eurozone inflation above target into early 2027.
At the same time, Nomura sees the Iran war as a headwind for H2 2026 growth, with recovery not expected until 2027.
What about other central banks?
Bank of Japan: Nomura expects three more hikes, but the market prices in over four — a clear gap.
Bank of England and People's Bank of China: Nomura sees no further hikes, while the market prices in four-plus for both.
This reflects a systematically more dovish stance from Nomura across the globe, built on the same logic: rates are already high, inflation is cost-driven, and financial conditions are already tightening.
Why does this expectations gap matter?
After Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole last month, market bets on "inflation fading on its own" cooled significantly.
Nomura's upgrade is a proactive revision in that context — acknowledging oil and inflation pressure but refusing to follow the market all the way up.
This means → if Nomura is right, the market's priced-in rate path is too aggressive and bonds may be oversold; if the market is right, Nomura's dovish stance will be chased higher by reality.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。