Novogratz Warns: If U.S. Treasuries Trigger a Minsky Moment, All Assets Must Be Liquidated
Nashnova编辑部
Galaxy Digital founder Michael Novogratz warns that runaway U.S. debt is destroying confidence in long-term Treasuries; if yields keep surging and trigger a Minsky moment, no asset will be safe and investors must liquidate entirely.
What exactly is Novogratz warning about?
Macro investor Michael Novogratz warns that America's massive, out-of-control debt is eroding market confidence in long-term U.S. Treasuries.
He believes that if yields keep surging, they could hit a critical tipping point — a Minsky moment — when market confidence evaporates all at once.
This means → his fear is not a slow decline but a sudden snap in confidence, from "things are fine" straight to "full-blown panic."
Why is a Minsky moment so dangerous?
In plain terms = markets normally run on one shared belief: "U.S. Treasuries are safe." If that consensus vanishes overnight, every asset priced off Treasuries loses its foundation at once.
Novogratz's judgment: at that point no asset can serve as a safety cushion — stocks, bonds, even traditional safe havens would all be hit.
This reflects his extreme pessimism about U.S. fiscal health: debt has grown so large that the "safe asset" itself is becoming unsafe.
How should investors read this warning?
Novogratz's advice is stark: if a Minsky moment arrives, investors must liquidate everything.
This means → in his framework, the conventional playbook of "trim positions + hedge" is not enough, because in a systemic crisis the hedges themselves fail.
Important context: this is one investor's extreme-scenario call, not an event that has already occurred. The key variable is whether Treasury yields keep surging and whether market confidence is already near the tipping point.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.