NVIDIA Earnings Correlated Stocks: AMD Shows Strongest Correlation, McDonald's Most Notable Inverse Mover
Nashnova编辑部
CNBC Pro back-tested Nvidia's post-earnings stock-price linkages since 2016 and found AMD most correlated (0.75) while McDonald's diverged most sharply (only 17% co-movement)—This means → Nvidia earnings aren't just one stock's event; they're the starting gun for a broader market-style rotation.
What is Wall Street pricing in this time?
Nvidia reports Q2 results after the close on August 26. The Street expects adjusted EPS of $2.10 and revenue of $92.18 billion—both roughly double year-over-year, per LSEG data.
The options market is pricing a ~5% move in either direction post-report.
This means → the market isn't "locked in bullish." It's betting on a large directional outcome—up 5% or down 5%—with deep disagreement on which.
Which stocks move with Nvidia?
AMD leads: correlation coefficient 0.75, beta 0.28, co-moving with Nvidia on roughly 70% of past earnings days.
Data-center power-and-cooling maker Vertiv ranks high at 0.67 correlation, but with only 32 observations its statistical reliability is limited.
In chip design: Onto Innovation (0.64), Marvell (0.59), Monolithic Power (0.57). Marvell's co-movement probability hits 71%, the highest among large-caps.
Micron, Broadcom, Synopsys, and Cadence also appear. In plain terms = the entire AI-chip supply chain—from design tools to memory to power and cooling—moves in lockstep with Nvidia's earnings print.
Which stocks move against it?
Pfizer shows a −0.61 correlation, co-moving only 38% of the time.
McDonald's diverges most sharply: correlation −0.56, co-movement just 17%. This means → on days Nvidia rallies post-earnings, McDonald's almost always falls, and vice versa.
Verizon, Philip Morris, Amgen, and Johnson & Johnson sit in the same inverse basket. Gold miner Newmont registers −0.54, co-moving only 29% of the time.
Why does this "seesaw" exist?
This reflects a broader market-style rotation (risk-on / risk-off—the market toggling between chasing growth and seeking safety).
Strong Nvidia print → risk appetite rises → capital flows into growth and AI names → defensive, value stocks bleed relatively.
In plain terms = Nvidia earnings don't "cause" McDonald's to drop. They act as a starting gun: once it fires, money begins migrating between "offense" and "defense" assets.
What does this mean for ordinary investors?
If you hold AI-chain stocks, Nvidia's earnings day is your concentrated risk window—co-movement means "all rise together, all fall together."
If you also hold defensives (pharma, consumer staples, gold), the inverse relationship provides a natural portfolio hedge.
This means → checking your portfolio's structure before the report is more practical than trying to guess the numbers.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.