Nvidia's Seven-Day Losing Streak Marks Longest Since 2022, Yet Analysts Keep Raising Earnings Forecasts
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Nvidia fell for a seventh straight session — its longest losing streak since 2022 — yet Wall Street analysts have lifted profit estimates by 13% in three months. The widening gap between price action and fundamental expectations is this pullback's defining tension.
What does a seven-day slide actually tell us?
Nvidia dropped 2.91% on Monday, its seventh consecutive decline. The Nasdaq slipped just 0.4%; the Dow rose roughly 170 points — a clear divergence that singles out Nvidia as the main drag on tech.
Year-to-date, Nvidia is up only about 7%, the worst performer in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
This means → AI chip spending is spreading across a wider set of semiconductor companies, and the market is repricing Nvidia's dominance premium.
Is an 18× forward P/E really cheap?
Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to roughly 18×, a multi-year low. On the surface, that looks inexpensive.
But its 10-Q shows that of approximately $58 billion in net income, $13.4 billion came from unrealised gains on publicly traded equity holdings — paper profits on stocks it owns but hasn't sold.
In plain terms = strip out those paper gains, and the normalised P/E climbs to nearly 60×. The gap between "18×" and "60×" is the heart of the earnings-quality debate.
What about customer concentration and buybacks?
Nvidia's top three customers account for 54% of revenue, a structure that keeps investors cautious about earnings stability.
On capital returns, Nvidia added $80 billion in share-buyback authorisation in the quarter ending April, replacing Apple as the largest single repurchaser in US equities.
Its data-centre segment posted $193.7 billion in FY2026 revenue — the scarcity premium on upstream compute infrastructure is cashing in first.
Why are analysts still doubling down?
Over the past three months, Nvidia's profit estimates have been revised up a cumulative 13%, with 2027 fiscal-year profit now projected at $228 billion.
Of the 82 analysts covering Nvidia, only 3 rate it a hold and 1 rates it a sell. The average price target implies more than 50% upside.
This reflects a Wall Street conviction in Nvidia's fundamentals that hasn't cracked — the divergence between falling prices and rising estimates is the single most important signal to watch in this pullback.
What comes next?
Two verification points matter most: whether the stock can stabilise after seven straight down days, and whether analysts' rising profit forecasts ultimately show up in the share price.
In plain terms = the market and the analysts are in a standoff — one is voting with its feet to sell, the other is voting with its models to buy. Whichever side is proven wrong first loses the argument.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。