Nvidia's Seven-Day Losing Streak Marks Longest Since 2022, Yet Analysts Keep Raising Earnings Forecasts
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Nvidia fell for a seventh straight session — its longest losing streak since 2022 — yet Wall Street analysts have lifted profit estimates by 13% in three months. The widening gap between price action and fundamental expectations is this pullback's defining tension.
What does a seven-day slide actually tell us?
Nvidia dropped 2.91% on Monday, its seventh consecutive decline. The Nasdaq slipped just 0.4%; the Dow rose roughly 170 points — a clear divergence that singles out Nvidia as the main drag on tech.
Year-to-date, Nvidia is up only about 7%, the worst performer in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
This means → AI chip spending is spreading across a wider set of semiconductor companies, and the market is repricing Nvidia's dominance premium.
Is an 18× forward P/E really cheap?
Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to roughly 18×, a multi-year low. On the surface, that looks inexpensive.
But its 10-Q shows that of approximately $58 billion in net income, $13.4 billion came from unrealised gains on publicly traded equity holdings — paper profits on stocks it owns but hasn't sold.
In plain terms = strip out those paper gains, and the normalised P/E climbs to nearly 60×. The gap between "18×" and "60×" is the heart of the earnings-quality debate.
What about customer concentration and buybacks?
Nvidia's top three customers account for 54% of revenue, a structure that keeps investors cautious about earnings stability.
On capital returns, Nvidia added $80 billion in share-buyback authorisation in the quarter ending April, replacing Apple as the largest single repurchaser in US equities.
Its data-centre segment posted $193.7 billion in FY2026 revenue — the scarcity premium on upstream compute infrastructure is cashing in first.
Why are analysts still doubling down?
Over the past three months, Nvidia's profit estimates have been revised up a cumulative 13%, with 2027 fiscal-year profit now projected at $228 billion.
Of the 82 analysts covering Nvidia, only 3 rate it a hold and 1 rates it a sell. The average price target implies more than 50% upside.
This reflects a Wall Street conviction in Nvidia's fundamentals that hasn't cracked — the divergence between falling prices and rising estimates is the single most important signal to watch in this pullback.
What comes next?
Two verification points matter most: whether the stock can stabilise after seven straight down days, and whether analysts' rising profit forecasts ultimately show up in the share price.
In plain terms = the market and the analysts are in a standoff — one is voting with its feet to sell, the other is voting with its models to buy. Whichever side is proven wrong first loses the argument.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.