NY Fed August Survey: Consumer Job and Financial Concerns Rise to Post-Pandemic Highs
nashnova research
The New York Fed's August consumer survey shows unemployment expectations at their highest since April 2020, with financial and credit confidence weakening in tandem — just one week before the Fed's September meeting, adding pressure to an already uncertain rate decision.
How bad are the job-market fears?
Respondents' expectations for the unemployment rate one year ahead rose to their highest since April 2020 — when Covid was devastating the U.S. economy.
This means → in consumers' eyes, the job outlook has returned to peak-pandemic anxiety levels.
The NY Fed noted this pessimism is broad-based across all age, income, and education groups — not confined to any single demographic.
Are wallets and credit lines tightening too?
Assessments of both current and future personal finances declined, and perceptions of credit access also turned more pessimistic.
In plain terms = people don't just fear losing jobs — they feel shorter on cash and harder-pressed to borrow.
One contradiction: worry about quitting voluntarily eased, but confidence in finding a new job after an involuntary layoff also fell. This reflects a labor market entering a "too scared to move, too scared to lose" standoff.
Did inflation expectations worsen alongside?
The one-year inflation expectation held steady at 3.6%, the five-year at 3.0%, and the three-year edged down from 3.3% to 3.2%.
This means → job and financial confidence are deteriorating, but consumers' price outlook is largely stable — no double panic of "fearing layoffs and fearing inflation" at the same time.
The one exception: respondents expect gasoline prices to rise over the coming year.
How does this land ahead of the Fed's September meeting?
The report dropped roughly one week before the Fed's September 15–16 policy meeting. The benchmark rate sits at 3.50%–3.75%, well above the 2% inflation target.
The Fed is already split: Governor Christopher Waller said he would support holding rates steady if inflation keeps trending toward 2%; Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wrote on LinkedIn that "it is time to act" to bring inflation down — signaling she still leans toward hiking.
In plain terms = consumer confidence data is shouting "the economy is weakening," while inflation data says "not there yet." Friday's August CPI print will be the single most decisive input as the Fed navigates that tension.
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