Oil Prices Above $90: Chinese Refiners Cut Crude Purchases
Nashnova编辑部
With crude holding above $90 a barrel, Chinese refiners are keeping purchases near pre-Iran-war lows; even the most optimistic Q4 forecast puts daily imports at roughly 9.9 million barrels — far below the 12–13 million barrel stockpiling peak of 2025.
How much is the rebound — and how far from last year's peak?
Rystad Energy, Energy Aspects, and FGE NexantECA project purchases will rise by up to 1.2 million barrels per day from Q3 to Q4.
Yet the rosiest Q4 estimate is only about 9.9 million bpd. Last year, when crude averaged below $70, China's stockpiling peak hit 12–13 million bpd.
This means → the jump from $70 to $90 has effectively cut roughly 20–25% of China's purchasing momentum.
Why won't refiners chase higher prices?
The most direct factor: crude has surged from a 2025 average below $70 to above $90, sharply raising feedstock costs.
Energy Aspects analyst Jianan Sun notes that Chinese refiners also face a domestic fuel-price ceiling — costs rise, but pump prices cannot follow in step.
In plain terms = raw materials cost more, finished products can't be marked up, and every extra barrel bought squeezes margins further.
Middle East supply is disrupted — can other sources fill the gap?
Many Chinese refineries are built for medium-sour Middle Eastern crude — a grade whose sulfur content matches their equipment — but the war has made it both expensive and scarce.
Buyers scrambled for Iraqi and Saudi cargoes yet came away empty-handed in ADNOC's latest tender.
Sun says volumes from Brazil and Angola may not fully offset the Middle Eastern shortfall. This reflects a bottleneck that is not just about price — it is about hardware compatibility.
How much traffic is moving through the Strait of Hormuz?
More tankers are now passing through the Strait of Hormuz — the Persian Gulf's sole sea exit and the mandatory route for Middle Eastern crude — but volumes remain well below pre-war levels.
FGE NexantECA and other consultancies have already built a degree of recovery into their models.
This means → the analysts' optimistic Q4 forecasts already assume improved strait access; if that improvement disappoints, actual purchases could be lower still.
Are inventories still adequate?
Data intelligence firm Kpler estimates China's combined commercial and strategic reserves at roughly 1.16 billion barrels, down nearly 8% from the May peak.
Commercial stocks still give refiners some operational room — no need for panic restocking in the near term.
Rystad VP of oil markets Lin Ye says: "Energy security will underpin China's strategic response if the conflict drags on." In plain terms = how seriously Beijing treats energy security determines where the inventory floor is set.
Once the war ends, will demand fully return?
Rising EV penetration and the electrification of freight trucks raise a pointed question: has some of the fuel demand lost during the war shifted permanently?
This means → even if the war ends and prices fall, China's crude imports may never regain the 12-million-plus bpd peak.
This reflects a deeper signal: high oil prices and geopolitical conflict are accelerating China's energy-mix transition, not merely suppressing demand temporarily.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.