Oil Prices Rise for Two Consecutive Weeks as U.S. Vows Maximum Sanctions on Iran
Nashnova编辑部
Brent crude topped $93 a barrel for the first time since July 24, up nearly 6% this month. A stalled Strait of Hormuz reopening plus Washington's pledge of "the toughest-ever" Iran sanctions are repricing risk across the oil complex — and refined products are feeling it even more.
Why have oil prices kept climbing for two weeks?
Brent settled above $93 a barrel on Thursday — its first close at that level since July 24. The monthly gain is nearly 6%; last week alone added 5.95%.
Two forces are driving the rally: no sign the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon + a sharp escalation in U.S. sanctions rhetoric against Iran.
This means → the market had bet on a quick de-escalation and a return to normal shipping. That bet keeps losing, so the risk premium keeps growing.
What exactly did "the toughest-ever sanctions" amount to?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday that Washington will impose "the toughest sanctions ever" on Iran, echoing President Trump's "devastating" economic-pressure threat the day before.
Bessent added that the "maximum economic pressure" path means a large-scale military operation "probably" won't restart.
In plain terms = the U.S. is choosing to squeeze Iran with sanctions, not with force — yet Bessent himself seemed puzzled that oil prices rose after the president spoke.
How is the diplomatic deadlock reshaping market pricing?
Janiv Shah, VP of oil-market analysis at Rystad Energy, told CNBC: "There is almost no sign of diplomatic progress — the oil market is pricing in diplomatic failure again."
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at very low levels; fatal attacks continue, and Washington's harder line adds uncertainty to any reopening timeline.
This reflects a market that has shifted from "waiting for a diplomatic breakthrough" to "assuming a prolonged standoff" — and is marking up the risk premium accordingly.
Why are refined products under even more stress than crude?
Shah highlighted that the bigger pressure sits in refined products: the diesel crack spread — the profit margin refiners earn turning crude into diesel — has hit an all-time high.
Three pressures are stacking: near-term supply shortfalls + persistent demand resilience + thin inventory buffers.
This means → even if crude prices flatten, refinery capacity constraints and energy-security concerns will keep pushing diesel and other product prices higher. Inflation pass-through from this channel is the market's next key test.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.