Pantheon: U.S. August Core CPI Expected Below Threshold, Fed Likely to Hold Steady This Month
nashnova research
Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts U.S. August core CPI at just 0.17% month-on-month, below every threshold that could trigger Fed tightening — the FOMC is expected to hold rates steady.
Why does 0.17% matter?
Pantheon's August core CPI forecast is 0.17% m/m, below two key lines: 0.21% (which would keep the year-on-year rate at 2.5%) and 0.28% (which would pull it down to 2.4%).
This means → the forecast clears both thresholds with room to spare, giving the Fed no reason to act at this meeting.
In plain terms = inflation isn't rising fast enough to cross the bar for a rate move, so rates most likely stay put.
Why are goods prices climbing?
Core goods prices are forecast to rise about 0.2% m/m, driven by higher energy costs and rising computer memory-chip prices.
Pantheon notes that processed-materials prices — inputs used to make finished products — have surged since spring, and such costs typically take about six months to feed through to consumer goods.
This means → the cost pressure on the goods side has not fully reached the checkout counter yet; core inflation could be pushed higher from this channel over the coming months.
What is happening on the services side?
Pantheon expects services inflation to stay relatively mild: airfares are projected to fall, and seasonal-residual patterns will cap gains across several service categories.
On housing, primary rents are forecast at +0.22% m/m and owners' equivalent rent (OER — an estimate of the implied rent homeowners would pay) at +0.25%.
In plain terms = services are not adding fuel to the inflation fire; rents are creeping up but not running away.
What does headline CPI look like?
Headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m in August, driven mainly by a 4.4% jump in energy commodity prices.
Core CPI on the broader release measure is expected at +0.2% m/m — a manageable pace.
This reflects an inflation picture where pressure is concentrated in energy and goods, not broadening across the economy.
Does everyone at the Fed watch the same number?
The report stresses that the breadth of CPI gains matters as much as the headline, especially for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — he looks not just at the total but at how many categories are rising.
Some policymakers focus more on the core PCE deflator — a separate inflation gauge that strips out volatility more aggressively — rather than CPI itself.
This means → even if the CPI print comes in soft, a divergent signal from PCE or from pricing breadth could shift the Fed's calculus.
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