Pictet Wealth Warns: Reduce Dollar and U.S. Treasury Holdings Over the Next Decade
Nashnova编辑部
Swiss private bank Pictet Wealth Management is urging investors to reduce exposure to U.S. Treasuries and the dollar over the next decade, citing tech-driven inflation and persistent fiscal deficits as structural headwinds — and pointing them toward emerging-market equities and commodities instead.
Why is Pictet telling clients to move away from the dollar?
The core logic fits one line: anything a government can print will lose value over time.
Pictet argues the AI boom and decarbonization — the global shift from fossil fuels to clean energy — will keep inflation elevated and volatile for years. This means → the real return on holding Treasuries gets eaten away, layer by layer.
At the same time, U.S. fiscal deficits remain stubbornly high and debt keeps compounding. In plain terms = the borrower keeps borrowing more, so each IOU is worth a little less.
How far could the dollar fall?
Pictet offers two specific forecasts: USD/CNY dropping from 6.74 to 5.97, and EUR/USD rising from 1.16 to 1.30, both over roughly ten years.
This means → the yuan appreciates about 11% against the dollar; the euro about 12%. Dollar cash holders face a meaningful erosion in purchasing power.
This reflects a quiet but significant shift: Pictet's confidence in the dollar as the global reserve currency is loosening — not a crash call, but a slow, structural weakening.
Where should the money go instead?
Kelvin Tay, Pictet's Asia CIO, recommends rotating into emerging-market equities and commodities. His reasoning is blunt: "Buy assets governments cannot print."
In plain terms = oil, copper, gold — physical assets no central bank can conjure out of thin air — hold their value better in an inflationary era.
Frederik Ducrozet, Pictet's head of macro research, revealed that clients have recently proactively requested currency-hedging discussions — something that was extremely rare in the past. This signals that institutional risk sentiment has shifted from watching to acting.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.