Qatar and Kuwait Exports via Hormuz Recover to 70% of Pre-War Levels
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Qatar and Kuwait have restored crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz to roughly 70% of pre-war levels via ship-to-ship transfers; daily strait flows have risen from 4 million barrels in mid-July to 7–8 million, pulling Brent back from above $120 to the $80 range — but a refined-product shortage is now the next structural risk.
How are Qatar and Kuwait getting their oil out?
Before the conflict, the two countries exported about 2 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike Saudi Arabia and the UAE, they have no alternative pipelines — early in the fighting, exports virtually stopped.
Starting around June, both adopted ship-to-ship transfers: smaller tankers carry crude through the strait to Oman's Gulf coast, where the oil is reloaded onto larger vessels. Exports have now recovered to roughly 70% of pre-war levels.
This means → countries without pipelines must rely on costlier, slower relay shipping — but the workaround is moving real volume.
What bolder tactics have Saudi Arabia and the UAE used?
The UAE was the first to restore exports, reaching pre-crisis levels in June through a three-pronged approach: ship-to-ship transfers + maximizing domestic pipelines from west to east to bypass the strait + sending tankers through in "dark mode" (automatic identification systems switched off).
Saudi Arabia set up ship-to-ship relay points outside Hormuz and rerouted barrels via the Red Sea and Egypt's Mediterranean ports, bypassing the Persian Gulf bottleneck entirely.
In plain terms = if you have a pipeline, use it; if not, relay by ship; if all else fails, turn off the transponder and slip through — every producer is improvising toward the same goal: get the oil out.
How much has strait flow recovered — and why has the oil price dropped?
Daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has risen from roughly 4 million barrels in mid-July to 7–8 million barrels. Shipping-data firm Vortexa puts its seven-day average even higher, at close to 10 million barrels per day.
Research firm TankerTrackers reports at least 15 simultaneous ship-to-ship transfer operations in the Gulf of Oman on any given day, handling about 25 million barrels of crude plus some refined products — sourced from nearly every country in the region except Iran.
This means → the surge in flow has directly deflated the oil-price risk premium. Brent has fallen from above $120 in late April to the current $80 range. Dennis Kissler, senior VP at BOK Financial Securities, says the market "appears to be starting to price in a peace deal sooner than expected."
If crude supply is easing, why isn't the crisis over?
The crisis is shifting shape: the pressure point is moving from crude supply to a refined-product shortage. Damaged Middle Eastern refineries plus Ukraine's ongoing strikes on Russian refining capacity are squeezing both ends at once.
The U.S. diesel crack spread remains above $90 per barrel and briefly hit a record $100 per barrel last week. Global diesel inventories are critically low.
In plain terms = crude oil is the raw material; refined products are what end-users actually burn. The raw material is moving again, but the processing plants have been damaged — so the end product is still in short supply.
What are the next key checkpoints to watch?
Even if crude flows through Hormuz continue to recover, refined-product pressure is unlikely to ease fundamentally in the near term.
Two verification points matter most: ① whether Iran and Oman can finalize the proposed "temporary joint maritime corridor"; ② whether the core U.S.–Iran disagreements can be resolved.
This reflects a deeper reality: the structural tension in energy markets is no longer just about "can crude get out" — it is about the entire crude-to-refined-product supply chain being under stress.
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