QQQ Technicals Weaken as Tech Earnings Week Intensifies Pressure
N.R. Finch
The Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) is flashing multiple bearish technical signals, down roughly 7% from its 52-week high — far worse than the S&P 500's 2% pullback. Whether this week's earnings from Tesla, Alphabet and others can arrest the slide is now the market's central test.
How weak is QQQ right now?
QQQ sits about 7% below its 52-week high, while SPY is only about 2% off its own peak. This means → the underperformance is specific to tech, not a broad-market problem.
Doug Busch, senior technical analyst at *Barron's*, says multiple technical indicators are flashing warnings simultaneously, and the combined evidence points to further downside.
In plain terms = tech isn't just slipping — it's falling behind the rest of the market, and the warning signs are stacking up.
Which technical signals have turned bearish?
Momentum: A bearish RSI divergence — a gauge of buying-versus-selling pressure — emerged from May to June. Price made a higher high, but RSI made a lower high. This means → buyers were losing steam even as the price kept climbing.
Moving averages: QQQ has broken below both the 50-day simple moving average and the 21-day exponential moving average; the latter has started curling downward. This means → the short-term trend has flipped from "up" to "down."
Price pattern: A 3.3% gap-down on June 23 completed a bearish island reversal — a pattern where price gets stranded at a high and then drops sharply. The June 30 gap-fill then triggered a roughly 6% pullback.
What does the weekly chart show?
The weekly MACD — a mid-term trend-direction indicator — is on the verge of a bearish crossover, an early warning that upward momentum is fading.
Over the past seven weeks: two doji candles, one spinning top, and three weeks with drops exceeding 4%. In plain terms = bulls have failed to mount a convincing counter-attack for seven straight weeks.
Busch argues that a pullback to the 50-week moving average in the $645–$650 zone would actually be a healthy consolidation, building a base for the next leg up.
Why are semiconductors dragging QQQ down harder?
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF briefly fell 20% from its 52-week high intraday, touching the technical bear-market threshold. This means → semis are falling far more steeply than tech overall, and because they carry heavy weight inside QQQ, they are pulling the whole ETF lower.
In plain terms = QQQ is a team, semiconductors are the star scorer — when the star gets hurt, the whole team's record slides.
Can this week's earnings turn things around?
QQQ still holds above the April double-bottom breakout support at $636.70, so the long-term trend is not yet broken.
Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, Texas Instruments, and Intel all report this week. Whether their results deliver enough fundamental support to halt the technical deterioration is the key question.
Busch's near-term downside target is $665, roughly 5% below Monday's trading price near $700. This reflects a technical view that is not optimistic about a bounce — the bias is "let it find a floor first."
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.