Reuters Poll: 85% of Economists Expect Fed to Raise Rates This Week, With at Least One More Hike This Year
nashnova research
A Reuters poll of 101 economists shows 85% now expect a 25-bp Fed rate hike to 3.75%–4.00% — the first since July 2023; just one week ago, over two-thirds expected no change, until an inflation print flipped the consensus overnight.
What flipped two-thirds of economists in a single week?
Last week, over two-thirds expected rates on hold. This week, 85% (86 out of 101) expect a 25-bp hike.
The trigger: Friday's inflation data. CPI and several PPI sub-indices beat expectations, leading markets to project that August core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, now running at nearly twice the 2% target — will accelerate further.
This means → the data in front of the Fed no longer supports "wait and see." One report moved the consensus from "hold" to "near-certain hike."
Why has Warsh's hawkish stance boxed the Fed in?
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech was read as a clear hawkish signal. A string of strong data since then pushed several economists to abandon their "hold" calls early.
BofA economist Stephen Juneau: "Warsh has somewhat painted himself into a corner — unless data turned extremely weak, it's hard not to hike. We didn't get weak data; we got a hot inflation print."
In plain terms = the chair talked tough, and the data didn't bail him out. Skipping a hike now would cost the Fed more credibility than delivering one.
How much credibility does the Fed have left in the bank?
BMO chief U.S. economist Scott Anderson warns: the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility is on trial. It must back hawkish rhetoric with action, or risk a sharp steepening of the Treasury yield curve — long-end rates surging while the short end stays put, a market signal that investors doubt the central bank's resolve.
Treasury Secretary Bessent's $6 billion buyback program failed to cap long-end yields — the 10-year Treasury still hovers near the politically sensitive 5% mark.
This reflects a market already voting with its feet: fiscal maneuvers alone cannot anchor long rates; only an actual Fed hike can rebuild trust.
What are rate futures pricing in?
CME data shows the market prices a near-90% probability of a hike this week, closely matching the poll.
Futures also imply roughly four cumulative hikes by the end of July 2027.
This means → traders are not betting on "one and done." They are pricing the start of a sustained tightening cycle.
Can the economy withstand consecutive hikes?
About 53% of respondents expect at least one more hike by end-March 2027; previously, 56% expected rates to stay flat — the rate-cut consensus has vanished.
But risks are piling up: total U.S. government debt exceeds $40 trillion, with annual interest costs above $1 trillion. Each hike raises the rollover cost of existing debt.
On the labor side, August hourly-wage growth already trails CPI year-on-year — real wages have turned negative — and labor-force participation continues to decline.
In plain terms = hiking tames inflation, but it also makes government borrowing costlier and shrinks workers' real pay. This is a lesser-of-two-evils bet.
After this hike, what comes next?
Warsh has consistently refused to offer forward guidance — he never telegraphs the next move. This means → even after this week's hike lands, markets will keep testing the Fed's willingness to tighten further.
Whether Warsh signals a clear follow-up hike after the September meeting will be the key test of whether Fed credibility can truly be restored.
This reflects a deeper reality: this hike may not be the destination. The real test is whether the Fed can convince markets it will stay hawkish all the way through.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。