Reuters Poll: 97% of Economists Expect BOJ to Raise Rates to 1.25% on September 18
nashnova research
A Reuters poll of 68 economists shows 97% expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates to 1.25% on September 18 — up from 57% in the prior survey — as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's public endorsement reshapes the political landscape around BOJ tightening.
Where does the 97% come from?
Reuters surveyed 68 economists between September 1 and 8. 97% expect a hike to 1.25% on September 18, up sharply from 57% in the previous poll.
This means → the market has priced the hike as near-certain; the real question is what comes after.
Over 80% of respondents said the joint U.S.–Japan yen intervention and Bessent's public stance have "significantly" or "to some extent" reduced the political resistance the BOJ faces.
What did Bessent say — and why does it matter?
Bessent met BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda during the G20 finance ministers' meeting and explicitly backed "decisive" monetary tightening to counter yen weakness.
In plain terms = the U.S. Treasury Secretary publicly gave the BOJ a green light to hike — making it very hard for Tokyo to keep stalling.
Mizuho Research's Yusuke Koshiyama noted that with U.S. cooperation secured, the Japanese government can no longer take a stance opposed to Washington's wishes — it has effectively lost the political space to resist.
Where does the hiking cycle end?
89% of respondents expect rates to reach at least 1.50% by the end of March next year, up from 65% a month earlier.
Around 62% see rates hitting 1.75% by Q2 2027 — roughly three months sooner than the August poll suggested.
On the terminal rate — the peak of this hiking cycle — half put it at 1.75%, unchanged from last month. But those choosing 2.00% or above rose from 36% in August to 40%; in July the figure was just 23%.
This means → the market is steadily pricing in a more aggressive path, and the disagreement over the endpoint is widening, not narrowing.
Why do some think the BOJ is still too slow?
Over a third of respondents expect the BOJ to hike again to 1.50% as early as October or December — roughly double the share in the August poll.
Pantheon Macroeconomics' Kelvin Lam pointed out that Japan's past hesitation on tightening let inflation expectations build up faster.
This means → the longer the BOJ waits, the bigger the hikes it eventually needs — going slow actually makes the bill larger.
Could fiscal expansion undermine the plan?
Japan's next-fiscal-year budget requests total ¥143.1 trillion (about $931.2 billion), swelling to pandemic-era levels.
Nearly three-quarters of surveyed economists said this scale has intensified concerns about Japan's fiscal discipline.
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust's Kei Fujimoto noted the budget rivals the FY2021 COVID-era package — "quite large for peacetime" — and combined with a planned food consumption-tax cut, worries over how it will be funded are set to keep rising.
What to watch after September 18?
The yen is trading near 153.37, close to its strongest since February, supported by capital-repatriation bets and accelerating tightening expectations.
This reflects a market already positioning for a stronger-yen path after the hike lands.
The real test on September 18 is not the hike itself — it is whether the BOJ can satisfy the market's dual expectations on both the size of the move and the forward path without triggering a fresh bout of volatility.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。