Reuters Poll: ECB Expected to Pause After a 25bps Rate Hike in September
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A Reuters poll of 65 economists shows the ECB is set to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10 — and stop there, making this the shortest hiking cycle since 2011, a sign the bank is choosing caution over conviction.
How strong is the consensus?
All 65 economists polled expect a September hike — up from 83% in August and 72% before the July meeting.
Roughly 91% see the rate staying at 2.50% through year-end; 78% expect it to hold through mid-next-year — both figures above last month's poll.
This means → the debate is no longer "will they hike?" but "how long will they hold?"
Inflation is still rising — why do economists say enough?
Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August, well above the ECB's 2% target — but the main driver is energy costs, a supply-side shock, not overheating demand.
In plain terms = oil and gas prices are pushing the headline number up, but consumers are not on a spending spree. More rate hikes cannot fix oil prices — they can only drag down growth.
ING's head of global macro, Carsten Brzeski, put it bluntly: "Risking a recession to fight a textbook supply shock is a hard road to take" — especially with public finances strained and bond yields already surging.
When does inflation actually get back to 2%?
Economists revised their 2026 inflation forecast up to 2.9% — the largest intra-year upward revision since 2022.
This-quarter and next-quarter forecasts were lifted from 3.0% and 3.2% to 3.2% and 3.3% respectively. Inflation is not expected to return to 2% until late 2027.
This means → even if the ECB stops hiking, elevated inflation will shadow the eurozone for at least another eighteen months. The wait to see whether the policy worked is long.
Why aren't futures markets buying the "one-and-done" story?
Rate futures currently price in a third hike, a clear divergence from the economists' consensus that September is the last move.
Natixis chief European economist Alain Durré warns that diesel, petrol, and food prices are highly visible to consumers. If those pressures persist, short-term inflation expectations could climb again — raising the risk of a wage-price loop.
This reflects a market that does not fully trust "one more and done" — futures traders are hedging for a scenario where the ECB has to go again.
What could break the "pause" script?
The Middle East conflict is the biggest wild card. Sources told Reuters that ECB policymakers currently have little appetite to signal further tightening after September — but if the Iran conflict drags on or escalates, that stance could shift fast.
The core constraint keeping the ECB from hiking further is fragile growth: the eurozone is forecast to expand just 0.8% this year and 1.2% in 2027.
In plain terms = the ECB's current posture is "don't move unless forced." But one more oil-price spike from a geopolitical flare-up, and that posture could flip overnight.
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