Reuters Poll: Economists Maintain Forecast of No Fed Rate Cuts This Year
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A Reuters survey of 104 economists shows nearly 80% expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged all year; a September hold is near-consensus — the real debate is whether the next move is a hike or more waiting.
What is the market pricing for September?
90% of surveyed economists expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% at its September meeting, largely unchanged from last month's poll.
Market-implied odds of a September hike have dropped from roughly 50% to near 30%. This means → the market is shifting from "hike likely" to "pause probable."
Three data points drove the shift: weaker July payrolls, below-forecast consumer inflation, and soft retail sales — all pointing to a cooling economy.
Rates likely frozen all year — but which way does the risk lean?
Nearly 80% of economists (80 out of 104) see rates unchanged through year-end; that share has held steady for three months.
22 forecasters expect at least one hike; only 2 expect a cut. In plain terms = the odds are lopsided — if rates move at all, they almost certainly go up, not down.
The survey median puts rates on hold through the end of next year, leaving very little room for the market to price in easing.
Why is inflation data the core fault line?
HSBC economist Ryan Wang called the July inflation print "essentially neutral" and said slowing activity data could push more FOMC members toward a wait-and-see stance.
Santander chief U.S. economist Stephen Stanley disagrees: core PCE — a price gauge stripping out food and energy — is running near 3% annualised. "Not good enough," he said, and he still expects the Fed to tighten next month.
This reflects a deeper split: doves see the economy cooling; hawks see inflation that hasn't cooled enough. The disagreement isn't about the facts — it's about which trajectory matters more.
What data drops next — and why does it matter?
Before the September meeting, the Fed will receive June PCE data (last reading: 3.7%) and a fresh jobs report — these two releases will shape how the internal divide breaks.
Economists forecast full-year PCE inflation averaging 3.5%, with prices staying above the Fed's 2% target at least through 2028.
Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed his commitment to bringing inflation back to 2% but offered no concrete action plan; three FOMC members already voted for a hike last month. This means → the chair is promising the destination without naming the route — that ambiguity is itself a signal.
Is the oil-price wild card still on the table?
The U.S.–Iran conflict has persisted for roughly six months, pushing oil prices about 25% above pre-conflict levels.
Even as most economists forecast no rate change this year, markets still price in a possible year-end hike. In plain terms = oil is the variable that doesn't fit neatly into forecasting models — if geopolitical risk keeps pushing energy costs higher, inflation expectations could re-accelerate and the "hold" consensus could crack at any time.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.