S&P 500 Q3 Earnings Expected to Grow Across All Sectors as AI Spending Dividends Spread Industry-Wide
nashnova research
Every S&P 500 sector is expected to post earnings growth in Q3 — the first clean sweep since the post-pandemic rebound of 2021 — driven by AI capital spending that now flows well beyond tech into industrials, consumer, and utilities.
How rare is an all-sector earnings sweep?
Every S&P 500 sector is forecast to grow earnings in Q3. The last time that happened was 2021, when companies were climbing out of the pandemic trough.
This means → the two-year pattern of "tech surges, everything else flatlines" is cracking open.
Wells Fargo chief equity strategist Ohsung Kwon: "Just last quarter, non-AI companies also beat expectations by a pretty big margin."
How does AI money reach other industries?
Barclays US equity strategy head Venu Krishna spells out the mechanism: hyperscaler AI capex is so large that the dollars spent become revenue for storage, hardware, industrials, energy, and utilities.
In plain terms = building data centers means buying vacuum pumps, cooling systems, and specialty coatings — those orders feed a wide belt of industrial firms. Data centers also consume power and water, lifting utilities.
The consumer side benefits too: AI construction drives jobs and housing demand, while rising stock portfolios boost spending on travel and dining.
Who is gaining the most, and who is just recovering?
Big tech and oil stocks still lead the pack, with Q3 earnings growth forecast at 62% and 111% respectively — far above every other sector.
Healthcare is expected to return to earnings growth this quarter; banks are on track for double-digit gains — both had been soft for several quarters.
Food-services firm Aramark raised its outlook for the second time this year after signing contracts to provide catering, cleaning, and transport at data-center campuses — projected to add $400–500 million in revenue over two years.
Which corners are still under pressure?
Insurance is expected to post an earnings decline in Q3 — weaker pricing plus rising loss costs, a sector-specific cycle unrelated to AI.
Media and advertising face a double squeeze: clients are cutting marketing budgets and using AI to produce ad campaigns in-house, bypassing traditional agencies.
This reflects a key nuance: AI diffusion is not uniform — it sends orders to some industries while displacing the core business of others.
What is the biggest risk to this broadening?
Kwon turned cautious on equities several weeks ago. His core concern: whether AI-related capex is sustainable — if big tech cuts budgets, every industry on the supply chain decelerates in lockstep.
Krishna flags two macro risks: rising interest rates and tightening credit conditions.
A more specific tail risk: community pushback or policy moratoriums on data-center construction — "especially heading into midterm elections, that's a huge risk, particularly for sentiment."
In plain terms = the sustainability of AI capex is the single hinge for this earnings broadening — if the money stops, the bridge collapses back to a one-lane road.
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