Saudi Oil Exports Drop to 13-Year Low as Detour Routes Face Successive Disruptions
nashnova research
Saudi crude exports fell to 3.2 million barrels per day — a 13-year low — as the Red Sea and Suez alternatives both came under attack, tightening a critical bottleneck for global energy supply.
How far have exports fallen?
Shipping-data firm Kpler puts Saudi crude exports last month at 3.2 million bpd, the lowest in at least 13 years.
Only two Saudi-flagged tankers passed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait into the Red Sea in the past week. This means → Saudi Arabia's southbound Red Sea export lane is near-paralyzed.
Bab el-Mandeb (the narrow chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden — every Red Sea vessel must transit it) saw average daily crossings fall to 35 in August, the lowest since July 2025.
How did Saudi export routes break down one by one?
First reroute: The U.S.–Iran war broke out and the Strait of Hormuz closed → Saudi Arabia shifted to Red Sea pipeline exports.
Second reroute: Houthi forces declared a blockade on Saudi Red Sea shipping on July 20 → Saudi Arabia rerouted again, sending tankers north to pipelines near the Suez Canal and out through the Mediterranean. This means → higher costs, and voyages to Asian buyers lengthened by weeks.
The backup is no longer safe either: In late August a Saudi tanker was struck in the central Red Sea — a zone previously considered relatively secure. In plain terms = the threat has spread northward from the southern Red Sea near Yemen. Every detour Saudi Arabia finds is being shut down in turn.
What is the Houthi targeting strategy?
The Houthis block only vessels linked to Saudi Arabia, letting other ships through the Bab el-Mandeb to avoid triggering U.S. retaliation.
But this "selective blockade" has itself deeply distorted global shipping patterns — since the Houthis began attacking commercial vessels in late 2023, major carriers have rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to Asia–Europe voyages.
Former U.S. deputy special envoy for Yemen Allison Minor noted that at least seven ships bound for or departing Saudi ports have been attacked since the blockade was declared. This reflects an accelerating tempo of strikes, not isolated incidents.
How much confidence remains in Red Sea shipping?
Xeneta analyst Peter Sand said the sliver of confidence shipping firms still had in using the Red Sea "has clearly faded."
Burcu Ozcelik, senior Middle East fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, noted: "The Bab el-Mandeb does not need to be physically blocked to produce a lasting economic shock."
Put simply = the strait doesn't have to be sealed shut. If attacks are frequent enough, carriers route themselves around it — the effect equals a blockade.
What comes next?
The Houthis last week accelerated military operations inside Yemen, aiming to seize territory of strategic value to Red Sea shipping lanes — a further escalation.
Saudi officials announced retaliation for Houthi strikes on southern energy facilities that injured 73 civilians.
This means → whether Saudi Arabia can maintain stable supply with multiple export corridors blocked simultaneously is the key variable for whether global energy prices stabilize at elevated levels. Any further escalation will add direct upward pressure on oil prices.
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