Schroders Increases Long-Duration U.S. Treasury Holdings, Views 4.8% Yield as Buying Zone
nashnova research
Schroders, managing $1.15 trillion in assets, has shifted from underweight to overweight duration, with its global CIO calling the 4.8%–5% range on the 10-year Treasury a buy and betting that a softer-than-expected inflation print could trigger a tradeable rally toward 4.5%.
What did Schroders actually do?
Schroders began adding duration — a bond portfolio's sensitivity to interest-rate moves — over the summer and stepped up purchases in recent weeks.
The firm moved its global bond stance from underweight duration (held for most of this year and the past several years) to a modest overweight. This means → Schroders flipped from "hold less long-dated debt, fear rising rates" to "actively add long bonds, bet that rates have peaked."
In plain terms = a $1.15 trillion asset manager has formally taken the other side of the "rates stay higher for longer" trade.
Why buy at this level?
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit roughly 4.82% intraday Wednesday — the highest since 2023.
Global CIO Johanna Kyrklund gave an explicit range: 4.80%–5% is a buying opportunity, with a target rally back to around 4.5%.
This means → Schroders sees the yield near the top of its range, with limited room to rise much further and more room to fall.
Does the rest of the market agree?
No. Most fund managers remain cautious on long-dated bonds.
The reason: investors are demanding higher yields to compensate for fiscal-credibility and policy-risk concerns.
Markets currently price roughly a 62% probability the Fed hikes this month. This reflects a consensus still positioned for "higher for longer" — Schroders is the contrarian bet.
How does Schroders view the rate-hike risk?
Kyrklund's view: "If the Fed hikes, it's already priced in. If inflation data come in soft and the Fed surprises by standing pat, bonds could rally."
In plain terms = the hike is in the price; the real variable is an inflation downside surprise — if CPI undershoots, bond prices move up.
This means → Schroders is betting on asymmetric risk: a hike changes little, but a soft inflation print could spark a meaningful rally in long-duration Treasuries.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。