Sinopec Chairman: China's Oil Demand Likely Peaked Last Year
Nashnova编辑部
Sinopec chairman Hou Qijun said China's oil demand has likely already peaked in 2024, three years ahead of the company's earlier 2027 forecast; if confirmed, the inflection in the world's largest crude importer would reshape long-term export expectations for major producers.
"Already peaked" — what's the evidence?
At a Hong Kong earnings briefing, Hou cited three converging forces: clean-energy growth, electrification, and low-carbon targets — together pulling the peak from 2027 forward to 2024.
He added a hard constraint: "Even if U.S.–Iran tensions ease next year and demand recovers, it will not exceed last year's level."
This means → Sinopec is not calling a cyclical dip. It is calling a structural ceiling — in its own framework, Chinese oil demand has permanently capped out.
What happened in the first half to support the call?
Sinopec's earnings report showed road-fuel demand falling sharply in H1, driven by two factors: high fuel prices curbing travel, and consumers accelerating the switch to EVs.
Senior VP Tian Hongbin expects the decline to narrow somewhat in H2, aided by economic-stimulus policies — but the word is "narrow," not "rebound."
In plain terms = the H1 data is the real-world footnote to the "peak" thesis: not a one-quarter blip, but the EV-over-ICE transition cashing in faster than expected.
How is the supply side adjusting?
President Wan Tao said Sinopec is diversifying crude sourcing away from the Middle East, while working with Middle Eastern suppliers to find shipping routes that bypass Iran's war-conflict zones.
Eleven tankers previously stranded in the Persian Gulf have since arrived at port, carrying a combined ~2.76 million tonnes of crude.
On inventories, the company maintains roughly 20 days of refining feedstock and 15 days of refined-product marketing stock; wartime levels remain stable, and commercial reserves continue to follow government directives.
What does this mean for global crude markets?
China is the world's largest crude importer. If its demand peak is confirmed as arriving early, long-term export expectations for producers — especially Saudi Arabia and Russia — face material compression.
This means → the pricing logic for global crude-demand growth needs rewriting. For the past decade, "Chinese incremental demand" was the core pillar under oil prices — and that pillar is loosening.
This reflects a larger signal: China's energy transition is moving so fast that even the country's biggest refiner can no longer keep its own forecasts ahead of reality.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.