Six Months into the Iraq War: Over 43% of Global Oil Produced in Conflict Zones
Nashnova编辑部
Six months after the US–Iran war began, conflict-affected countries now produce 45 million barrels per day — over 43% of global supply, a record; surging oil prices are driving up inflation and borrowing costs, pushing US national debt past $40 trillion.
43% of oil from war zones — what does that number mean?
Reuters, drawing on IEA data, calculates that the Iran war, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, Libyan instability, and US restrictions on Venezuelan exports have combined to put roughly 45 million barrels per day under conflict risk.
This means → nearly half the world's oil supply is exposed to geopolitical disruption; escalation at any single flashpoint can trigger a chain reaction.
The direct trigger was the US–Israeli military strike on Iran in February this year.
How does Gulf oil get out?
Tensions at the Strait of Hormuz — the sole chokepoint for Persian Gulf crude — have opened a supply gap estimated at 5–7 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia has rerouted some exports via the Red Sea, but fresh attacks near the Red Sea and the Suez Canal struck again in July.
In plain terms = the main route is blocked, the backup route is under fire, and oil logistics risk is at a historic high.
Why is refining capacity shrinking too?
Ukraine has been striking Russian refineries, reaching as far as the Omsk refinery — roughly 2,700 km from Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Russia now faces domestic fuel shortages and has banned gasoline and diesel exports, tightening the global fuel market further.
The conflict has also hit Kazakhstan, forcing output and refining cuts — combined, global refining capacity has fallen by roughly one-tenth.
Can strategic reserves still hold the line?
The IEA has deployed emergency strategic reserves at a record scale to cushion the supply shock.
But that release is now largely complete, and global inventories continue to fall.
This means → the emergency ammunition is spent; if another supply disruption hits, there is almost zero buffer left.
Oil prices up — how does that hit the wallet?
US diesel prices have reached an all-time high, even with refiners running at full capacity.
Fuel inflation → higher borrowing costs → fiscal strain: US national debt has broken through $40 trillion, a record.
In plain terms = the chain reaction from oil prices has traveled from the fuel pump all the way to the national balance sheet.
What to watch next?
Global dependence on US oil is rising, but US domestic supply has itself been interrupted multiple times by extreme weather.
Whether the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes can be secured is the key variable for global energy markets.
This reflects the core risk of the current landscape: supply concentration is too high, and every alternative route is unstable.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.