Soochow Securities: Gold, Copper, and Oil in Three-Asset Resonance — Bullish Gold Target at $5,000
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Gold, copper and oil have rallied in sync since late June — up as much as 17%, 9% and 30% respectively — driven not by a broad commodity boom but by weakening dollar credibility, geopolitical risk and fragile supply chains, according to Soochow Securities.
Three commodities rallying together — what is the market really pricing?
Gold touched $4,700/oz in late August, Brent crude returned to near $90/bbl, and copper approached its all-time high.
Yet each asset runs on a different engine: gold trades dollar credibility, copper trades supply scarcity, oil trades geopolitical disruption.
This means → treating them as "commodities going up together" misses the point; sustainability has to be assessed asset by asset.
The shared macro backdrop: a July US-Japan FX intervention and fading Fed rate-hike expectations weakened the dollar on the margin, giving all three room to run.
Why could gold reach $5,000?
The core narrative is US fiscal stress: 2024–2025 deficits ran $1.83 trillion and $1.78 trillion; interest payments consumed 55% and 48% of those deficits — exceeding defence spending in both years.
In plain terms = the US government's debt-servicing bill now costs more than its military, eroding long-run confidence in the dollar and pushing capital toward gold.
Central banks are adding too: the PBoC bought 640,000 oz of gold in July — the largest single-month addition since November 2024; SPDR Gold ETF holdings rebounded to 1,047 tonnes by August 21.
Gold ETF volatility stood at 27% as of August 22, with crowding indicators still muted. This means → money has not yet piled in, leaving upside room intact. The report's bull-case target: $5,000/oz.
Why is copper rising under the shadow of tariffs?
The US imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper; refined copper is exempt for now, but a 15% levy is planned for 2027 and 30% for 2028.
This means → global copper is rushing to the US ahead of schedule: July US copper arrivals topped 200,000 tonnes, a single-month record since 2014; COMEX inventories hit an all-time high of 740,000 tonnes.
But non-US markets are being drained: LME stocks fell to 238,400 tonnes, SHFE to 41,100 tonnes; on August 17 LME spot copper flipped into backwardation — a market structure where near-month prices exceed far-month, signalling acute physical tightness.
The mine side is equally strained — Chile's Q2 copper output fell 7.7% year-on-year, and copper concentrate treatment charges dropped to -$181/dry tonne (a negative figure means smelters are paying up just to secure ore). The report sees little room for a deep pullback before tariffs take effect.
What supports oil's V-shaped rebound?
Brent crude fell to $68/bbl in June after a tentative US-Iran understanding, then surged back to near $90/bbl as tensions reignited in July.
Inventories have been heavily drawn: observable global oil stocks have fallen by roughly 410 million barrels since the conflict began, including 69 million barrels in July alone; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to about 290 million barrels — its lowest since 1982.
In plain terms = the world's oil buffer is near empty; any fresh supply disruption translates almost directly into higher prices.
Strait of Hormuz transit collapsed from roughly 120 vessels/day pre-conflict to fewer than 10; in early August only about 1.25 tankers/day passed through. OPEC's July output was roughly 23.63 million bpd, down nearly 5 million bpd from pre-conflict levels. The IEA projects a 1.8 million bpd supply shortfall in Q3 2026.
How long can this three-asset rally last?
The report outlines three scenarios: a prolonged US-Iran stalemate keeps Brent at $80–90/bbl; an unexpected blockade of both key straits could push oil to new highs; even a return to effective talks would see Brent settle near $70/bbl, anchored by low inventories.
This reflects two variables that will set the ceiling and duration of this rally: whether dollar-credibility erosion deepens further, and how the Middle East situation evolves.
This means → for investors, gold-copper-oil is not a "buy together, sell together" package — gold tracks the long-run dollar-credibility trend, copper tracks tariff timelines, and oil tracks geopolitical intensity. Only by separating the three does the analysis hold.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。