Strait of Hormuz Transit Plunges: Only 12 Vessels Crossed Over the Weekend
nashnova research
Only 12 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz last weekend, down sharply from 35 the week before — visible traffic through the world's most critical oil chokepoint has fallen to less than one-tenth of pre-war levels.
What exactly happened this weekend?
Commodity-shipping tracker Kpler recorded roughly 12 cargo vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, down from 35 the previous weekend.
On Sunday, four ships left the Gulf — two carrying refined products, two empty bulkers and gas carriers — while two small tankers entered.
On Saturday, five ships departed with agricultural goods, LPG, and fertilizer; one empty very-large gas carrier entered.
How does this compare with pre-war traffic?
Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz handled roughly 125 large commercial vessels per day — tankers, gas carriers, bulkers, and container ships.
The strait is the transit route for about one-fifth of the world's crude oil and LNG.
Since the US–Israeli war against Iran began on February 28, visible traffic has shrunk to less than one-tenth of that baseline. This means → a global energy artery that once ran at full capacity around the clock is now barely a trickle.
Has Middle Eastern oil actually stopped flowing?
Not exactly. Reuters reports that Middle Eastern oil-producing states are still exporting crude.
But their tankers are widely sailing with AIS transponders — the automatic identification systems that let shore radar and satellites track ship positions — switched off.
In plain terms = the oil is still moving, but no one on the outside can see who is shipping it or how much — the market faces a structural blind spot on actual Middle Eastern supply.
What does this mean for oil prices?
With supply visibility persistently absent, traders cannot verify real Middle Eastern export volumes using public data.
This means → the uncertainty in crude-oil pricing is not a short-term disruption but a long-running information black hole.
This reflects a shift in the core risk of wartime shipping — from physical disruption to information disruption. Oil may still be flowing, but prices cannot accurately reflect true supply and demand.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。