Strategy Stock Cut in Half, Yet Wall Street Still Sees 170% Upside
Miles Bennett
Strategy has fallen over 40% in three months to roughly $100, making it the worst performer in the Nasdaq 100 — yet 17 of 21 analysts still rate it a buy, with a consensus target implying ~170% upside. The gap exposes Wall Street's pricing dilemma on Bitcoin proxy stocks.
The stock halved — why haven't analysts budged?
Strategy is the worst-performing stock in the Nasdaq 100 over the past three months, trading at roughly $100.
Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it "buy" or equivalent, three say "hold," and only one says "sell" — ratings barely moved.
This means → analysts adjust targets far more slowly than the stock reprices. The average target has fallen from above $460 at the start of the year to about $275, yet still implies ~170% upside.
In plain terms = the stock already took the elevator down; Wall Street's price tag is still on a floor it left months ago.
Is 170% implied upside realistic?
The ~$275 consensus target implies nearly twice the upside of SpaceX, the next-most-bullish name in the Nasdaq 100.
Adam McCarthy, head of research at crypto-liquidity firm LO:TECH, called the implied rally "far removed from reality and extremely unreasonable."
Among the 11 analysts who have updated their views, 9 kept a "buy" — but targets range from $130 to over $500. That spread alone signals the consensus is fragile.
How does Bitcoin dictate everything?
TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza said his view on Strategy hinges entirely on Bitcoin.
He expects Bitcoin to reach "hundreds of thousands of dollars" in two to five years — but concedes "it won't be a straight, smooth line."
Bitcoin currently trades near $66,000, down almost half from its record high late last year.
This means → Strategy is effectively a leveraged Bitcoin fund. Without a coin-price rebound, the stock lacks a floor.
The company shifted strategy — why isn't the market reassured?
Founder Michael Saylor transformed Strategy from an enterprise-software company into the world's largest public holder of Bitcoin.
By the end of June the company abandoned its "buy and hold" approach, actively managing liquidity and selling some Bitcoin to raise cash.
In plain terms = what was once a faith-driven "never sell" play is now selling coins to service debt — a sign balance-sheet pressure has reached the C-suite.
The changes aim to strengthen debt coverage, but they have failed to restore market confidence.
Can retail investors sustain the funding chain?
Saylor said roughly 80% of the Stretch preferred shares were sold to retail investors through at-the-market programs, and he wants preferred stock to become the primary funding source.
McCarthy warned: if retail remains the main buyer, Strategy's ability to keep raising capital depends heavily on retail willingness to keep buying.
This reflects a structural risk: the company's funding chain rests on retail sentiment, not long-term institutional commitment.
Worth noting: some analysts covering Strategy work at firms that have business ties to the company, including underwriting securities and acting as authorized agents for at-the-market sales — This means → the objectivity of those ratings is itself discounted.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.