Survey: ECB to Complete Final Rate Hike to 2.75% in December
nashnova research
A Bloomberg survey of economists expects the ECB to skip October and deliver a final 25-basis-point hike in December to 2.75%, closing this tightening cycle; the Middle East conflict driving energy prices higher is the key catalyst behind the shift.
Where did this rate-hike expectation come from?
A Bloomberg economist survey now sees the ECB raising its deposit rate by 25 basis points in December, bringing it to 2.75%.
This means → markets previously treated September's hike as the endpoint; that endpoint has now been pushed back by one meeting.
The catalyst: the Middle East conflict sent oil and natural gas prices sharply higher, re-tightening the inflation outlook. The ECB itself raised its inflation forecast last week, giving policy cover for one more hike.
Why skip October and wait until December?
The consensus among surveyed economists is that the ECB holds in October and saves the hike for the year's final meeting.
In plain terms = the ECB wants two more months of inflation data and energy-price signals before pulling the trigger.
Irish central bank governor Gabriel Makhlouf, however, said "every meeting is a live meeting" — signaling that an October move has not been fully ruled out.
After the hike — how long does the rate stay?
Economists expect the deposit rate to hold at 2.75% until the ECB begins cutting in December 2027.
This means → the high-rate environment lasts at least another full year; borrowing costs are not coming down soon.
Investors are pricing in something more hawkish — at least three more hikes, well beyond economists' "one and done" call.
What is the biggest uncertainty?
Whether December delivers depends on inflation data at the time and the direction of energy prices.
This reflects a broader shift: the final stretch of this hiking cycle is no longer driven purely by economic fundamentals — it is tied to geopolitical conflict.
Put simply = if oil prices retreat and inflation cools, this "last hike" may never arrive.
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