Tariff Disruptions Reshape Copper Market; ANZ Forecasts Record-High Copper Prices by Early Next Year
nashnova research
LME copper holds above $14,200 a tonne as ANZ forecasts a record high early next year — tariff-driven stockpile shifts into the U.S., simultaneous mine-supply cuts across multiple countries, and a 3% year-on-year drop in China's refined output are tightening the market on three fronts at once.
Why is copper hovering near highs instead of pulling back?
LME copper futures held above $14,200 per tonne on Thursday, trading in a narrow range.
ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes see a record high early next year.
Their logic chain: tariff uncertainty + tightening mine supply + resilient global demand → three forces pushing prices higher simultaneously.
How exactly are tariffs distorting the global copper market?
Markets expect the U.S. may impose tariffs on refined-copper imports → U.S. copper prices already trade above LME quotes.
This means → an arbitrage gap has opened, pulling record volumes of copper into U.S. warehouses.
In plain terms = copper's global distribution is being artificially warped — the U.S. is hoarding more, leaving less for everyone else, and available LME inventory is being squeezed in parallel.
What is going wrong on the mine-supply side?
ANZ lists four pressure points: a new export ban in the DRC, weaker output in Chile and Peru, and El Niño weather disruptions — multiple major producers cutting back at the same time.
The concentrate shortage is feeding downstream: China's refined-copper output fell 3% year-on-year in June to 1.1 million tonnes.
This means → the problem is not one broken link — the entire chain from mine to smelter is tightening.
What could knock copper prices lower?
Near-term risk: a fresh round of U.S.–Iran tensions → markets worry that high energy prices could drag on economic activity and metals demand.
In plain terms = if oil spikes on the conflict, production costs rise and demand may shrink — that would undercut the bullish case for copper.
Whether ANZ's "record high early next year" call plays out hinges on two key variables: the pace of mine-supply recovery and the direction of tariff policy.
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