Tier-1 City Home Prices Rise MoM in July While Tier-2 and Tier-3 Cities See Declines
Nashnova编辑部
China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that tier-1 city home prices rose month-on-month in July while tier-2 and tier-3 cities kept falling; year-on-year declines narrowed across the board, but all three tiers remain in negative territory — deepening the split in China's housing market.
Tier-1 prices rose — does that mean the market is recovering?
Tier-1 cities were the only tier to post a month-on-month price increase in July commercial-housing data.
This means → demand in top-tier cities is stabilizing first, but the move reflects scarcity premium in core cities, not a system-wide reversal.
In plain terms = buyers showed up in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen — that doesn't mean the rest of the country followed.
Why are tier-2 and tier-3 cities still declining?
Tier-2 and tier-3 commercial-housing prices fell month-on-month again in July, diverging sharply from tier-1.
This reflects the twin drag of high inventory and weak demand — policy stimulus has not yet fed through to transaction prices.
In plain terms = more homes built than buyers want, so prices keep sliding.
Year-on-year declines are narrowing — is that good news?
Across all three city tiers, year-on-year price declines continued to narrow, meaning the pace of falling has slowed.
But every tier is still in negative year-on-year territory — prices are lower than a year ago; they are just falling less quickly.
This means → the market is grinding along the bottom. A true stabilization — year-on-year turning positive — has not arrived. For buyers, the sharp-drop phase may be over, but a bottom-fishing signal has not appeared.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.