Trump Cancels Wedding, Stays at White House; Iran Warns to Launch 'Combat 3.0"

The situation heated up sharply on May 22nd. Trump announced the cancellation of his attendance at the wedding of his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., and his visit to the New Jersey golf club, citing "extraordinary circumstances" to stay at the White House, where he urgently convened the national security team that day to discuss military contingencies against Iran. Vice President Pence, Secretary of Defense Hegerzis, CIA Director Ratcliffe, and White House Chief of Staff Wells all attended the meeting, and key personnel from the US military and intelligence community have also canceled their recent vacations.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump is increasingly frustrated with the current progress of negotiations. Although he expressed hope for "giving diplomacy another chance" during a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on the 19th, his stance had noticeably hardened by the evening of the 21st, leaning towards ordering a large-scale military strike of "decisive" significance in order to subsequently announce victory and end the war. US officials revealed that unless an unexpected turn of events occurs within 24 hours, Trump remains inclined to give the green light for a new round of strikes.

Iran immediately responded. The Civil Aviation Organization of Iran issued a notice to airmen, temporarily closing all airports in the "Tehran Flight Information Region" west of Tehran except for eight airports including Tabriz, with the remaining open airports operating only from sunrise to sunset, with the ban valid until May 25th. According to CCTV International News, Iran's Armed Forces have prepared a new response plan, warning that if attacked again, they will initiate "Combat 3.0," involving "new types of equipment, brand-new targets, and the field of warfare strategy".

For global markets, Iran's countermeasures are particularly worth paying attention to. Sources close to Iranian senior officials have revealed that the "third struggle" plan of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran includes using firepower to blockade the Mand Strait, cutting off the seven undersea internet cables below the Strait of Hormuz, and launching hundreds of new missiles and drones daily to directly strike energy infrastructure in the Gulf region. The source warns that this move could lead to a "global economic collapse and unprecedented natural gas prices".

The last diplomatic mediation is still underway. The Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Army, Munir, and the Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran on the 22nd, attempting to push for an agreement at the last minute. Trump had previously revealed that, at the request of Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, the scheduled strike has been postponed by two to three days. However, Roger Wicker, the Republican Chairman of the US Senate Armed Services Committee, publicly urged Trump to resume hostilities, calling the pursuit of the current agreement a "bad idea," and demanded that the US military continue to destroy Iran's military forces and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.

The Strait of Hormuz sees an average transit of oil accounting for about one-fifth of the global supply, while the Mand Strait is the throat passage of Eurasian shipping. If Iran takes action, the energy and shipping markets will face the most severe supply shock since 2022.