U.S. 10% Global Tariff Set to Expire as Trump Plans New Round of Tariffs
Alina Collins
The U.S. blanket 10% tariff expires this Friday. The White House has prepared multiple plans to impose 10%–12.5% duties on roughly 60 countries, now grounded in a forced-labor probe under Section 301 — a new legal track that sidesteps the Supreme Court but adds procedural drag, even as political headwinds mount.
The old tariff expires — what replaces it?
The current 10% global tariff was a stopgap after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs. It lapses this Friday.
The White House has prepared multiple replacement options, with rates expected between 10% and 12.5%, covering about 60 countries.
This means → tariffs are not going away; they are changing form. The pressure on global trade does not vanish on Friday.
Why switch the legal basis?
The Supreme Court ruled that the president cannot unilaterally impose tariffs under emergency powers (IEEPA) — that door is shut.
The new plans invoke a forced-labor investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, bypassing the court's constraint.
In plain terms = the old route was sign-and-impose. The new route requires an investigation process — slower, more steps, but on firmer legal ground.
Beyond these 60 countries, what else is in motion?
This week Trump slapped a 50% tariff on Canadian goods and a 25% duty on Brazilian imports.
The U.S. Trade Representative is also advancing a separate overcapacity probe covering 16 economies, including the EU, China, Japan, and South Korea.
This means → the 10%–12.5% range may be just the starting point. Once the overcapacity probe concludes, rates could climb higher.
What is holding Trump back?
Senior officials have privately urged Trump to honor 2025 trade deals and maintain stable relations with trading partners.
U.S. gasoline prices topped $4 per gallon this week as Middle East tensions pushed energy costs higher, intensifying inflation pressure.
This reflects a double ceiling on tariff escalation: midterm elections are approaching, and voters are acutely sensitive to the cost of living.
The biggest factor influencing tariff rates is the political climate and affordability concerns, which limit Trump's ability to escalate.
Michael Smart
Managing Director, Rock Creek Global Advisors
(interview with the Financial Times)
What to watch next?
This Friday is the first checkpoint: whether the new tariffs can land before the old ones lapse — or whether there is a gap.
The overcapacity probe is the second: its conclusions will determine whether rates can be pushed even higher.
In plain terms = short-term, watch whether the Friday package ships on time. Medium-term, watch whether the probe gives legal cover to raise rates further — two moves, different timelines, same direction.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.