U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Posts Most Above-5% Closing Days This Year Since 2006
nashnova research
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has closed above 5% on 55 days this year — the most for any full year since 2006. With a September supply wave and near-70% odds of a Fed rate hike, reasons to avoid the long end keep piling up.
What do 55 days above 5% really tell us?
The 30-year yield has closed above 5% on 55 days in 2025, more than any full year since 2006.
As of Tuesday it stood at 5.27%; in mid-August it touched 5.34% — the highest since 2007, just 10 basis points from the 22-year peak.
This means → long-end rates are not spiking and retreating — they are camped at highs. Holders of 30-year bonds have been under pressure for most of the year.
Where is September's money coming from — and going?
The market expects roughly $215 billion in investment-grade corporate bond issuance in September, following a record August — another massive supply shock.
In plain terms = corporations are competing for the same pool of buyers as Treasuries, making long-dated government debt even harder to place.
Treasury Secretary Bessent announced expanded buybacks of older debt last month, aiming to cap long-end yields. The market response has been muted.
Natixis rates strategist John Briggs was blunt: "Buybacks are a drop in the bucket." Long-end yields will stay elevated "until entitlement reform changes the deficit outlook."
The Fed's September meeting — will they hike?
The September 15–16 Fed meeting is the nearest major variable; trader pricing shows roughly 70% odds of a ~17 bp hike.
Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, and the market priced in a hike accordingly.
This means → if the Fed stands pat while inflation accelerates, investors get an even stronger reason to avoid the 30-year — long-duration bonds are most sensitive to inflation expectations.
Friday's August payrolls and the September 11 inflation print are the two nearest data checkpoints.
Who buys the 30-year — and who won't touch it?
The primary buyers are insurers and pension funds that need to match long-dated liabilities.
Duration-averse bond managers — those who prefer shorter holding periods and less rate sensitivity — tend to cap long-end exposure, leaving the 30-year relatively niche in the $31 trillion Treasury market.
Bank of America strategists noted: "Investors remain unwilling to add duration." With official-sector buying shrinking, the market increasingly relies on price-sensitive private demand to absorb ongoing supply.
Has the long end peaked?
JPMorgan's Priya Misra said Treasury buybacks may help support demand, but "probably can't match the supply flood from AI infrastructure buildout."
In plain terms = the government is buying back bonds to push rates down, while AI-driven capital spending is creating fresh borrowing demand — the two forces are pulling in opposite directions.
After being bearish on the long end all year, Briggs has shifted to "more neutral" at current levels: yields will still grind higher, but the term premium — the extra return investors demand for holding long-dated debt — and real yields "have come a long way."
Options traders have placed bets on the 30-year yield reaching about 5.7% by the November 20 contract expiry. This signals that some in the market believe the peak is still well ahead.
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