U.S. AI-Driven Investment Growth More Than Triples Europe's Pace
Nashnova编辑部
US corporate capex is set to rise 40% from 2021 to 2026 while the eurozone manages just 12%, with the gap driven largely by surging AI equipment spending — This means → the productivity gulf across the Atlantic is being torn wider by capital.
Where does the three-times gap come from?
Oxford Economics forecasts US real corporate capex will grow 40% over 2021–2026. The eurozone: 12%. Germany: virtually flat.
Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon alone are on track to invest over $725 billion in 2026, concentrated on AI infrastructure.
This means → the US investment boom is not broad-based — a handful of tech giants are pushing AI-infrastructure capital intensity to historic levels.
All that spending — how big is the productivity gap?
Bart van Ark, a Manchester University professor, presented data at the ECB's Sintra forum: from 2018 to 2025, US GDP per hour worked rose by $14. Europe's rose by $2.
In plain terms = for every extra hour worked, Americans earn $14 more than seven years ago; Europeans earn just $2 more — a 7× difference.
Van Ark stressed this is not a Silicon Valley story alone — wholesale, retail, and professional services show the same divergence.
Why can't Europe catch up?
Van Ark argues the problem is not total investment but a "missing link" between innovation and actual adoption of new technology by firms across industries.
Europe launched the world's first comprehensive AI regulatory framework — the 2024 AI Act — but critics say strict regulation dampens innovation and investment appetite. French President Macron has warned of Europe "over-regulating and under-investing."
Karsten Junius, chief economist at Swiss bank J. Safra Sarasin, points to rigid labor markets as a contributing factor. This reflects a deeper structural weakness: Europe's institutions cannot absorb new technology fast enough.
The Draghi report came out almost a year ago — any progress?
Former ECB President Mario Draghi published a competitiveness report in September 2024, warning that Europe's required investment exceeds even the post-WWII Marshall Plan in scale.
Oxford Economics' Daniel Harenberg put it bluntly: "The US economy is more dynamic, more entrepreneurial, moves faster, and gets richer rewards in the AI race. Europe is much slower."
This means → nearly a year after the report, tangible progress on closing the gap is almost invisible — the diagnosis exists, but the prescription has not landed.
Is the US AI investment boom risk-free?
The Bank for International Settlements warned in June 2025 that if AI investment returns fall short, the result could be a sustained "investment-bubble bust."
Junius sees the US-Europe gap as at least partly temporary — "US AI investment cannot stay at this scale forever," and IT and semiconductor investment cycles have repeated throughout history.
But he adds a harder edge: if Europe fails to catch up on frontier technology, "living standards relative to the US will keep declining" — In plain terms = the US may overheat in the short run, but Europe's real danger is not trying to catch up at all.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.