U.S. and Venezuela Sign 25-Year Oil Agreement Targeting 1.5 Million Barrels Per Day With Over $100 Billion in Investment
nashnova research
The US and Venezuela signed a 25-year, $100 billion-plus oil cooperation agreement targeting daily output above 1.5 million barrels; the deal marks Trump's biggest energy-driven diplomatic bet on Caracas, but it faces fierce pushback from both ends of Venezuela's political spectrum.
What exactly did they sign?
The framework spans 25 years, covers 17 strategic oil fields, and opens 8 new exploration blocks.
At a benchmark price of $65 per barrel, the deal is projected to generate roughly $209 billion in tax revenue for Venezuela, with about $19 per barrel flowing directly to the government.
This means → this is not a simple purchase order — it is a full-cycle energy framework locking in exploration, production, and fiscal terms for a quarter-century.
Chevron is expected to finalise negotiations first; Venezuelan officials are preparing to award new exploration and production rights to multiple companies, including US firms, as early as next week.
Why now — what went wrong with Venezuela's oil?
Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, yet years of underinvestment, mismanagement, and sanctions have pushed daily output to just 1.25 million barrels — far below potential.
Trump claimed on social media that the US has secured "majority control" over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven reserves.
In plain terms = Venezuela is sitting on the biggest oil vault on Earth, but the key has rusted shut. The deal's core logic: the US supplies capital and technology in exchange for extraction rights and a new crude source.
$209 billion in tax revenue — does that number hold up?
Francisco Monaldi, head of Latin America energy policy at Rice University's Baker Institute, challenged the figure: $209 billion spread over 6.5 billion barrels works out to roughly $3.20 per barrel.
Factor in present-value discounting — what future dollars are actually worth today — over a 25-year project life, and the real value drops further.
This means → the headline number looks massive, but per-barrel and in present-value terms, Venezuela's actual take may be far less than advertised.
Monaldi called the lack of transparency in Venezuela's oil policy "very concerning"; Rodríguez herself acknowledged that actual revenue will fluctuate with oil prices.
Why is the deal under fire from both left and right inside Venezuela?
Chavista hardliners accuse acting president Rodríguez of selling out national sovereignty. Former left-wing lawmaker Willian Rodríguez invoked the late President Chávez, saying the deal "abandons the homeland."
The opposition objects on different grounds: it was excluded from negotiations entirely. The most prominent opposition leader, María Corina Machado, was shut out. Opposition member José Amalio Graterol said any agreement signed by Rodríguez "has no validity whatsoever" because she "lacks original legitimacy."
In plain terms = the left says she sold the country; the right says she had no authority to sign. Neither side accepts the deal as legitimate.
What is Washington's geopolitical calculus?
The stated goal: new crude supplies to help bring down US domestic fuel prices.
Eurasia Group's Latin America director Risa Grais-Targow noted a dual effect on Rodríguez: the deal reinforces Trump's willingness to work with her, potentially weakening Washington's push for early elections in Venezuela — but resource nationalism also makes the agreement a political liability for her at home.
This reflects a deeper shift: political analyst Benigno Alarcón argued that as US companies commit billions to Venezuela, Washington's policy centre of gravity may move from promoting an "orderly transition" toward preserving "stability favourable to US economic interests."
Can this deal actually be delivered?
The agreement faces a twin uncertainty: domestic political resistance in Venezuela (rejected by both left and right) + oil-price volatility (the entire fiscal model assumes $65 per barrel).
This means → signing is only step one. Whether the deal advances over 25 years depends on whether Caracas can maintain enough political stability, and whether global oil prices sustain the economics.
In plain terms = a $100 billion headline is dramatic, but the real test is whether a government squeezed from both sides can execute over decades of price swings.
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