U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Memorandum of Understanding Looms, Trump: Possible Next Week

The United States and Iran are close to reaching a one-page ceasefire memorandum of understanding, aimed at ending the current military conflict and setting the framework for resuming detailed nuclear negotiations that last for a month.

U.S. sources reveal that a Pakistani source stated on the 6th that the U.S. and Iran are nearing the completion of a memorandum of understanding designed to conclude the war. On the same day, it was disclosed that two U.S. officials and two other informed individuals revealed that the Trump administration believes it is close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding with Iran. This memorandum is intended to put an end to the war and to set the framework for more detailed nuclear talks.

President Trump said that the U.S. and Iran had "good talks," and expected Iran to respond within 24 to 48 hours. Officials said that the agreement has not yet been finalized, and there are still differences in positions among the parties.

Trump stated that U.S. actions in Iran are "going very smoothly," and that the Iranian side "wants an agreement, they want negotiations." He emphasized that the U.S. will not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons and will continue to push for an agreement that "satisfies the U.S." Trump also emphasized that blockades and negotiations go hand in hand.

Trump told the media at the White House on the 6th that he felt the U.S. was getting closer to reaching an agreement, "I think there's a very good chance of making a deal," and the two sides might reach an agreement next week to end this conflict. However, he also threatened, "If they don't agree, then we will carry out bombings."

The prospect of a ceasefire immediately eased market concerns about a disruption in the energy supply chain. On Wednesday, the global benchmark Brent crude oil price fell in response, closing at $101.27 per barrel. At the same time, due to investors reassessing the possibility of breakthroughs in the negotiations, the stock market overall saw an upturn.

One-page Memorandum Framework Emerges, Iran Passes Response through Pakistan

According to media reports citing informed sources, the framework of the understanding memorandum proposed by the U.S. contains two core elements: first, gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the blockade; second, lifting sanctions on Iran, while demanding that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment program. All terms include reversible mechanisms—if the subsequent broader nuclear agreement negotiations break down, these conditions can be revoked.

Iran is expected to pass its response to the U.S., which is playing the role of mediator, through Pakistan in the next two days. CCTV news cited a Pakistani source as saying that the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching this understanding memorandum. However, Iran's official media has signaled that parts of the U.S. proposal are "too harsh and unrealistic," and there are still differences in the negotiations.

Trump indicated that he did not set a deadline for reaching an agreement, but predicted that an agreement "will eventually be achieved," and claimed "we have won this war."

Energy Crisis and Political Pressure Drive Trump to Seek an Outlet

The push for Trump to seek a negotiating solution is due to the rising energy prices and a decreasing approval rating in the polls.

Data from the American Automobile Association shows that U.S. gasoline retail prices have broken through $4.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2022. With only six months left until the midterm elections, the price issue is becoming a core focus for voters.

Previously, the Trump administration briefly introduced a plan to provide a safe passage for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but it was immediately halted. This one-page proposal was brought forward following the shelving of that plan.

In his speech, Trump characterized the current conflict as "small scale," saying that the U.S. is "making very good progress" and emphasizing that the blockade on Iran is "very strong," leaving Iran "almost unable to conduct any activities in or out."

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